UBS Equities-Global Strategy _CTAs Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Upda...-119148669

ab2 December 2025Global ResearchGlobal StrategyCTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly UpdateDetails on the methodology/model can be found in our Q-Series reportDespite last week's rebound, base effects remain negative• November has been a roller-coaster for stocks. Last week's rebound has prevented fire selling from CTAs; they 'only' sold ~$25bln worth of global equities since mid-November. Still, base effects remain negative, especially for Japanese & US large caps indices, as the 'post liberation day' rally in Q2 is slowly getting out of the 6m rolling window.• In rates, CTAs have reduced their duration beta, but the bulk of their risk is expressed in relative value: long US/Canada/UK vs. short EU/Japan/Australia. As a result, the range of possible outcomes in the coming weeks is unusually wide, as they could very well sell US duration in size, or on the opposite end, buy great amounts of EU duration.• In Credit, CTAs managed to hold on tight during the stressful but short-lived risk-off episode. As we move into December, we do not anticipate noticeable flows, as carry harvesting should prevail.• In FX, with the exemption of some CNH buying, CTAs were pretty quiet since our last update. This month, we foresee a bit of G10 FX buying vs. USD, especially in commodity currencies. In EM, some profit taking seems warranted in Latam currencies, but should happen at a measured pace.• In Commodities, CTAs have been on the sideline lately. Going into year-end, we expect some short covering in oil futures. Current signals: bullish stocks/credit/metals, neutral $/bonds, bearish Asia FX/IRa) Equities: bullish across the boardb) Bonds: bullish US, Italy, Canada & UK; bearish Japan, EU, Korea & Australiac) Credit: bullish across the boardd) Currencies: bullish EMEA, CEE & Latam FX, neutral USD, bearish Asia FXe) Commodities: bullish metals, neutral energy & agriculturalsPotential trades in couple of chartsLevels to watch on S&P 500Levels to watch on UST 10yWhat our CTA model says about FX? What our CTA model says about Equities?What our CTA model says about Rates? What our CTA model says about Credit?What our CTA model says about Commodities?Figure 1: CTA price momentum signals in major markets: today vs forecast-1.00-0.75-0.50-0.250.000.250.500.751.00US10Y EU10YSPXSX5EMESA(EM Eq)XIN9IEURMXNCNHCdxHY CrudeGoldSignal (t)Exp. Signal (t+2w)Signal value [-1,+1]Source: UBS, BloombergFigure 2: Current positions and expected flows (as % of ADV) in major markets-15-10-50510152025US10Y EU10YSPXSX5EMESA(EM Eq)XIN9IEURMXNCNHCdxHY CrudeGoldPosition (t, %ADV)Expected Flows (t, t+2w, %ADV)(%ADV)CDX HY: +39%ADVUS10y: +32%ADVEU10y: -26%ADVSource: UBS, BloombergThis report has been prepared by UBS Europe SE. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 30. Global Macro StrategyGlobalNicolas Le RouxStrategistnicolas.le-roux@ubs.com+33-14-888 5000Bhanu BawejaStrategistbhanu.baweja@ub