UBS Equities-Tracking Prescription Volumes by Channel _1121 4QTD25 YY ...-119083857

ab28 November 2025Global ResearchTracking Prescription Volumes by Channel11/21: 4QTD25 Y/Y TRx 0.0% (-0.3% Ex-Vax and Ex-GLP-1)US Pharma Market: 4QTD25: y/y TRx Growth 0.0%; NRx Growth -0.8%.IQVIA based y/y prescription trends for 4QTD25 vs. 4Q24: All Drugs TRx: 0.0% NRx: -0.8%; excluding COVID vaccinations Total TRx/NRx was +0.3%/-0.2% y/y; excluding GLP-1 Total TRx/NRx was -0.7/-1.2% y/y; excluding COVID vaccination and GLP-1, TRx -0.3% y/y. Brands TRx: +0.5% NRx: -2.9%. Generics TRx: -0.2% NRx: -0.3% Y/Y. Generics Share of All Drugs TRx ex-vax: 80.0% (-40bps y/y and -264bps q/q). For w/e 11/21, GLP-1 Share of All Drugs TRx: 2.4% (+60 bps y/y ). Scripts have not been adjusted for y/y calendar changes.Monthly Chemotherapy Rx Tracker: October Rx’s Uptick Meaningfully. We track a basket of the most prescribed chemotherapy drugs on a monthly basis as of the end of October. On a y/y TRx basis, October increased by +12.7% y/y up from 11.8% in Q3 25 (+16.7% in September 25, +8.7% in August 25 and +10.2% in July 25). On a y/y NRx basis, the basket of drugs saw a +5.5% in October vs. +6.9% y/y in 3Q25 (+10.7% in September 25, +3.1% in August 25 and 7.2% in July 25). Based on NRx three-year averages, 4QTD 25 was up +17.3% versus 14.3% in Q3 25, and +13.3% in 2Q25. Within our coverage, greater use of oncology drugs could be negative for MCOs. By contrast, more oncology scripts bode well for mix at COR and MCK, given their leverage to oncology distribution. As it relates to EVH, the impact is more nuanced with the company's exposure linked to site of care (Part B), payor (Medicare/Medicaid) and whether the magnitude of utilization is priced in within EVH’s specific contracts with customers. Of note, EVH has embedded oncology utilization of 12% within their FY25 guidance. Despite the October uptick, we believe the 3Q25 growth still aligns with EVH management commentary that oncology cost trend is running just below 11% y/y, as discussed on the latest earnings call. Within our tracked chemotherapy basket, October y/y TRx growth was led by Hormonal oncologics (+33.4% y/y in October 25 vs. +30.6% y/y in 3Q 25 vs. 35.6% in September 25), driven by Nubequa (+85.3 % y/y in October 25, vs +77.0% y/y in 3Q 25, vs. 84.7% in September 25), Xtandi (+29.6% y/y in October 25 vs. +29.4% y/y in 3Q25 vs. +32.9% in September 25), and Erleada (+26.0% y/y in October 25 vs. +24.1% y/y in 3Q 25 vs. +29.8% y/y in September 25). It is worth mentioning Lupron Dept-4MO and Orserdu with high y/y growth rate but a rather low volume. Immunology-targeted small molecule follows (32.6% y/y in October vs. +35.2% y/y in 3Q25, +38.8% in September 25 ) with RinvoQ the sole contributor per IQVIA. On a y/y NRx basis, Immunology-targeted small molecules also performed well in NRx (+32.5% y/y in October 25 vs. +32.6% y/y in 3Q 25 vs. +35.2%), again solely represented by RinvoQ. Hormonal oncologics follows (+27.2% y/y in October 25 vs. +26.5 % y/y in 3Q25 vs. 32.0% y/y in September 25), d