欧洲央行-金融稳定回顾2025年11月（英）

www.ecb.europa.eu © 26 November 2025Financial Stability ReviewNovember 2025Press briefingwww.ecb.europa.eu © 2High asset valuations carry the risk of sharp adjustments that could challenge and be amplified by non-banks1A challenging fiscal outlook in some advanced economies could test investor confidence and lead to stress in sovereign bond markets2Credit risk exposures to tariff-sensitive firms and growing funding risk exposures to non-banks could pose challenges for banks during periods of economic or market stress3Financial stability vulnerabilities remain elevated,given uncertainty over geoeconomic trends and tariff impactswww.ecb.europa.eu © Context: A volatile international environment▪Trade agreements resulted in lower than initially feared tariffs on euro area exports to the United States; the full impact of the new elevated-tariff regime is yet to materialise▪Market concerns about stretched public finances could create strains in global bond markets with repercussions for euro area financial stabilityReturns on US benchmark assets, by currency of investment(1 Jan.-18 Nov. 2025, percentages)Sources: The Budget Lab at Yale and Caldara et al. (2020).Note: The effective tariff rate for 2025 is measured pre-substitution (i.e. assuming there are no shifts in the import shares of different countries compared with 2024).Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.3US effective tariff rate and global trade policy uncertainty(1 Jan.-17 Nov. 2025; lhs: percentages, rhs: index)www.ecb.europa.eu © High asset valuations carry the risk of sharp adjustments▪Fear of missing out, hard-to-price scenarios and AI exuberance have driven valuations higher1Drawdown in EURO STOXX(1 Jan. 2000-18 Nov. 2025, percentages)Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.Note: Drawdown is defined as the cumulative loss since the last peak. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.Notes: “Crypto-assets” refers to the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which is a benchmark designed to measure the price performance in US dollars of the largest cryptocurrencies. “Global equity markets” refers to the MSCI ACWI index, which measures the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks across both developed and emerging markets worldwide. Evolution of crypto-assets and global equity markets(1 Jan. 2024-18 Nov. 2025; indices: 1 Jan. 2024 = 100)4www.ecb.europa.eu © ▪Sizable and concentrated NBFI holdings of US assets at elevated valuations expose them to higher-than-normal market risk, amplified by exchange rate risk▪Liquidity mismatches and procyclical investor behaviour can amplify price swings in marketsSources: ECB (SHS, ICB, IVF, PFBR) and Bloomberg Finance L.P.Note: euro area non-bank holdings of US securities are shown as a share of total assets.Share of top ten S&P 500 firms in total market capitalisation and net income, and euro area non-banks’ US exposures(1 Jan. 2007-18 Nov. 2025, percentages) Weighted average equity price/earnings ratio and bond spreads in euro area non-bank portfolios(Q1 2015-Q2 2025; ratio, percentage