改进新型流行病病原体检测的策略-有前景的病原体不诊断检测工作流程的成本与检测性能（英）

ALEX DEMARSH, PEDRO NASCIMENTO DE LIMA, CASSIDY NELSON, JAVIER ROJAS AGUILERA, NATHAN DUARTE, SELLA NEVO, HENRY H. WILLISStrategies to Improve Detection of Novel Pandemic PathogensCost Versus Detection Performance for Promising Pathogen-Agnostic Detection WorkflowsResearch ReportThis publication has completed RAND’s research quality-assurance process but was not professionally copyedited.For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA3704-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions.RR-A3704-1 iii About This Research Report The possibility of a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen motivates the development and deployment of biosurveillance systems capable of rapidly recognizing novel threats. To inform decisions that enable the next generation of biosurveillance systems to rapidly detect outbreaks of novel pathogens, our team evaluated the cost and detection performance of three promising pathogen-agnostic detection strategies. These strategies employed combinations of novel detection technologies in an idealized setting of deploymen