UBS Economics-US Economic Perspectives _Near-term inflation update Few ch...-118816792

ab11 November 2025Global ResearchUS Economic PerspectivesNear-term inflation update: Few changesSeveral pieces of inflation data have been releasedIn the past couple of weeks there have been a number of pieces of price data that have been released, but the overall view for CPI increases over the next couple of months is little changed. We project the October headline CPI — if and when it is released — to show a seasonally-adjusted increase of around 14bp with the 12-month change edging down a handful of basis points from 3.01% to 2.95%. For the core CPI we project a 27bp seasonally-adjusted October increase with the 12-month change moving only from 3.02% to 3.04%. An updated inflation forecast spreadsheet has been posted on our website. This forecast is essentially unchanged from the broader view published in the UBS Global Outlook yesterday and the UBS US Outlook this morning.Even with the government re-opening looking likely later this week we do not expect an October CPI release. There is, however, a decent likelihood that October CPI numbers for a handful of the aggregate series will be published in the November CPI release. We expect that the November CPI release will be pushed back from the currently-scheduled December 10 publication date to sometime around December 16 to December 18. We should have more clarity on if these expectations are correct either late this week or early next week.Among the recent relevant price data published in the past couple of weeks:
Nielsen data suggest price increases continue to be moderate through the week ending November 1 for non-food items sold in grocery, drug, and convenience stores. Prices for food items have eased in recent weeks, in part driven by the continued decline in egg prices from their March peak.
JD Power new vehicle transaction prices for October suggest another seasonally-adjusted new vehicles CPI increase of around ¼ %.
JD Power Used Car Guide prices for November suggest the CPI increase slowing to around ½% in November after rising more than 1% in October. Wholesale used vehicles prices fell in October, though CPI seasonal factors are fairly robust in coming months, which should keep the seasonally-adjusted used cars CPI rising through early next year.
S&P Global consumer services output prices diffusion index continues to show an expansion in consumer services that is broader than last year.
AAA gasoline prices show retail gasoline prices bouncing around at a relatively moderate level over the past 4 weeks with little up or down trend.
Apartment List continues to show new lease rent changes continuing to run a little below the pre-pandemic pace — but the gap is narrowing.ACA subsidies likely to have little effect on CPI or PCE pricesThe ending of subsidies for the ACA health insurance marketplace should have little effect on medical care or insurance prices in either CPI or PCE prices. For these items (unlike other CPI items) the price taken is not the out-of-pocket price, but