IMF-金融危机以来的产业政策（英）

Industrial Policy Since the Great Financial Crisis Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Jaden Kim, Fernando Martín, Samuel Pienknagura, Michele Ruta, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, and Rafael Machado Parente WP/25/222 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 OCT * Simon Evenett is at IMD and Fernando Martín leads the Analytics Unit at the Global Trade Alert. Data collection for the NIPO isunder the sole responsibility of the Global Trade Alert team. The authors wish to thank the Global Trade Alert monitoring team,participants at the 2025 ECB-IMF Trade Expert Network Workshop, 26th European Trade Study Group Annual Conference, 10th IMF-World Bank-WTO Trade Conference, World Trade Forum 2025, Johannes Fritz, Kenneth Kang, Aaditya Mattoo, Martin Sommer, and colleagues from IMF departments for their thoughtful comments, and Yucheng Lu and Shuhan Yue for excellent research assistance. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/222IMF Working Paper Research and Strategy, Policy, and Review Departments Industrial Policy Since the Great Financial Crisis Prepared by Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Jaden Kim, Fernando Martín, Samuel Pienknagura, Michele Ruta, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, and Rafael Machado Parente* Authorized for distribution by Florence Jaumotte and Martin Sommer October 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT This paper extends the New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO) dataset from 2009 to 2023 by employing large language model techniques to identify policy motivations. We document widespread industrial policy adoption across advanced and emerging market economies since the Great Financial Crisis, which was implemented primarily through subsidies and trade restrictions. We identify a structural break around 2020, characterized by accelerated policy activity and the emergence of “new industrial policies” motivated by supply chain resilience, national security, and geopolitical concerns, in addition to policies focused on competitiveness and climate objectives, which were already prevalent in previous years. Policies have targeted dual-use and various advanced technology sectors, as well as their upstream inputs, such as critical raw materials and minerals. We find that geopolitical risk and tit-for-tat retaliation have played a greater role in driving industrial policy after 2020, and that this support extends beyond existing sectors of comparative advantage. JEL Classification Numbers: L52; C81; F50 Keywords: Industrial Policy; Trade