UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _3Q25 Earnings Brief October 30_ Simonds-118565174

ab30 October 2025Global ResearchUS Equity Strategy3Q25 Earnings Brief: October 30Yesterday, META reported 3Q results beating consensus expectations overall (sales surprise: 3.7%; earnings surprise: +8.3%). Meta raised 2025 Total Expense guidance, which increased at the low end to $116B-$118B from $114B-$118B, and CapEx guidance to $70B-$72B from $66B-$72B (link). Alphabet beat 3Q earnings expectations, posting a 2.4% sales beat and a 37.0% earnings surprise. Microsoft reported relatively in-line, with a 3.1% sales beat and a 1.5% earnings surprise. 49.8% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 3Q expectations are for revenues to grow 7.1% and EPS by 11.2%. Projected EPS growth among groups varies significantly, as shown below (a blend of consensus estimates and reported results where available): Expected EPS Growth YoY
TECH+: 24.4%
Financials: 21.5%
Non-Cyclicals: -3.0%
Cyclicals ex-Energy: 3.8%
Energy: -5.7%The 6 largest TECH+ companies are expected to outgrow the rest of the market as a group (EPS Growth 25.3% vs. 7.2%), though results vary for each company:Big 6 TECH+ EPS Growth (Expected vs. Actual, YoY)
GOOGL – 3Q25E: 5.0%; 3Q25A: 43.8%
META – 3Q25E: 10.7%; 3Q25A: 19.4%
MSFT – 3Q25E: 11.2%; 3Q25A: 12.7%
AAPL – 3Q25E: 5.4%; 3Q25A: Thursday 10/30
AMZN – 3Q25E: 14.2%; 3Q25A: Thursday 10/30
NVDA – 3Q25E: 52.0%; 3Q25A: Wednesday 11/19Earnings are beating estimates by 8.4% in aggregate so far, with 78% of companies topping projections. EPS is on pace for 11.7%, assuming the historical trend of estimate revisions through the end of reporting season.Over the next 5 trading days, 164 companies representing 30.2% of the S&P 500's market cap will report results, including Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Exxon Mobil, Berkshire Hathaway, AMD and McDonald's. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 18. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Equity StrategyAmericasSean SimondsStrategistsean.simonds@ubs.com+1-212-713 2851Maxwell Grinacoff, CFAStrategistmaxwell.grinacoff@ubs.com+1-212-713 3892Andrew GarthwaiteStrategistandrew.garthwaite@ubs.com+44-20-7567 4343Gerry FowlerStrategistgerry.fowler@ubs.com+44-20-7567 5490US Equity Strategy 30 October 2025ab 2US Equity StrategyUBS ResearchS&P 500Figure 1: S&P 500 EPS Growth 8.914.310.611.53Q244Q241Q252Q253Q25E%Current ConsensusForecast11.2Expected Final ReportedGrowth11.7Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Figure 2: S&P 500 EPS Growth - Impact from TECH+6.56.88.16.96.33Q244Q241Q252Q25E3Q25E%Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Note: Impact calculated as difference