Deutsche Bank-Metals Mining Copper supply risks. TECK ANTO site visit...-118640259

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 02/11/2025 17:02:17 GMTDistributed on: 02/11/2025 17:02:17 GMT2 November 2025Deutsche BankResearch Europe North America Global Latin America Metals & Mining Metals & Mining Industry Metals & Mining Date Periodical Copper supply risks. TECK & ANTO site visits. Week ahead. Valuations.Copper supply risk elevated into 2026This week, reporting from Anglo, Glencore and FM has further highlighted the risk to copper supply on top of several other disruptions that have pushed the market into a clear deficit over the coming quarters (The deficit has arrived). Anglo’s Q3 release included new guidance for the Collahuasi copper mine, with 2026 volumes guided broadly flat YoY due to ongoing lower grades and recoveries, implying a ~6% (50-60 kt) cut to existing 2026 group copper guidance of 760-820 kt, although the company plans to partly offset this through the planned restart of the second concentrator at Los Bronces in 2026 (~40 ktpa)). Glencore's Q3 production report was much stronger than expected and the company is on track to achieve 2025 guidance. Glencore is hosting its first CMD since 2022 on 3 December; although we think there is downside risk to its 2026 copper production guidance of 930 kt (due to its 44% stake in Colalhuasi), we believe 2027/28 guidance (930 kt / 1 mt) is likely to be broadly maintained. FM's Q3 report did not reveal any new details around Cobre Panama negotiations, and the timing of formal discussions and a potential restart remain key uncertainties for the copper market (we currently model a Q2 restart, but this looks increasingly like a best case scenario for the company). We also await a key update from FCX on 18 November when the company will provide updated multi-year guidance for Grasberg (we provide a full summary of the Grasberg mine, the incident and latest guidance here).TECK (BUY) and ANTO (HOLD): Chilean site visitsNext week, we will be attending site visits to Chile hosted by Teck (3-4 November) and Antofagasta (5-6 November). The Teck trip will focus on the QB mine and the company’s efforts to remove the tailings dam as a constraint; this follows Teck's recent operational update, where the company announced larger-than-expected cuts to guidance for the 2026-28 period. The revised QB guidance assumes a slower ramp-up as work focuses on the Tailings Management Facility (TMF), albeit it is expected that from 2027 the TMF should no longer be a constraint on throughput levels, and lower recoveries and throughput in 2027/28 (the trip may reveal how conservative, or otherwise, the new guidance is). The Teck site visit comes ahead of the release of the shareholder circular in mid-November and the shareholder vote on the Anglo merger on 9 December. Refer to our latest Anglo Teck merger analysis for further details.Liam FitzpatrickResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13233Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377Deutsche Bank AGIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND