联合国贸易发展委员会-《全球投资趋势监测》，第49期（英）

1#49 OCTOBER 2025Trends MonitorGlobal InvestmentTrends MonitorGlobal Investment#49 OCTOBER 2025Downturn in global investment persists in early 2025HIGHLIGHTSINDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT ANNOUNCEMENTS 15% LOWER; DEAL PACE ACCELERATING IN THE 3RD QUARTER Global FDI remains weak. Following two consecutive years of decline, preliminary data for the first half of 2025 indicates a further 3% decrease in global foreign direct investment (FDI) (figure 1). New project announcements also continued their downward trend. Investor caution deepens. Tariff escalation and ongoing geopolitical tensions have heightened investor uncertainty, leading to a widespread wait-and-see attitude across many sectors. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) remained subdued, with deal values declining by 23% in the first half of 2025; however, early indicators show increased activity in the third quarter.Figure 1 Investment trends, by region, 2025:H1(Per cent change vs 2024 half year average)WorldDeveloped economiesEuropeNorth AmericaOther developed economiesDeveloping economiesAfricaLatin America and the CaribbeanAsia73730382176454342893322FDI valuesFDIGreenfieldprojectsInternationalproject financeCross-borderM&AsGrowth rates (%)-3-7-25+5-70-42+12+7 +7+48+28+79+23-37-58-15-20-8-32-35-36-12+21+1+23+29-23-18 -1-23-52....+254-67Source: UNCTAD, based on information from The Financial Times, fDi Markets (www.fDimarkets.com) and LSEG Data & Analytics.2#49 OCTOBER 2025Trends MonitorGlobal Investment Infrastructure and manufacturing take a hit. The value of international project finance deals – primarily concentrated in infrastructure sectors – fell by 8% (figure 1). Greenfield investment project announcements, mostly in industrial sectors, also declined, dropping by 17% in number (figure 2). Supply chain-intensive manufacturing sectors were especially affected. Bright spots in the digital and AI sectors. Despite fewer projects, the total value of greenfield announcements rose by 7%. Announced greenfield project values in the first half of 2025 were significantly lifted by continued investment growth and major projects in the digital economy and AI-related sectors. SDG investment faces mounting challenges. The global investment climate remains tough for sectors critical to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Following a sharp decline in 2024, preliminary data from the first four months of 2025 shows a further 10% drop in the number of SDG-related investment projects. Projects in least developed countries (LDCs) are on track to fall by another 5% in 2025, possibly reaching their lowest level since 2015. Outlook: persistent headwinds. Looking ahead, the international investment environment is expected to remain challenging throughout the remainder of 2025. Geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, economic fragmentation, evolving industrial policies, and multinational efforts to de-risk supply chains are likely to continue weighing on FDI flows. Nevertheles