国际清算银行-绿色转型的货币政策（英）

BIS Papers No 160 Monetary policy for the green transition by Luca Fornaro, Veronica Guerrieri and Lucrezia Reichlin Monetary and Economic Department September 2025 JEL classification: E52, E58, E61, O44. Keywords: Monetary policy, green transition, inflation, directed technological change. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1682-7651 (online) ISBN 978-92-9259-875-4 (online) BIS Paper No 160 1 Monetary policy for the green transition1 Luca Fornaro (CREI), Veronica Guerrieri (University of Chicago) and Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School) April 2025 Chapter 1: Introduction Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing our planet today, leading to severe environmental and social repercussions. Rising global temperatures are causing glaciers to melt, sea levels to rise and extreme weather events to become more frequent and intense. This results in floods, droughts and hurricanes that threaten ecosystems and human livelihoods alike. The urgent need for action is clear, as the longer we delay addressing these issues, the more irreversible the damage to our planet and future generations will become. This recognition has prompted countries worldwide to embrace proposals aimed at promoting a green transition, that is, a structural transformation of our economies away from polluting technologies and towards clean ones. A range of different policies have been implemented to promote the green transition all over the world. In particular, Europe has shown a strong commitment to sustainability and climate action. The European Green Deal is a comprehensive framework aimed at making the EU climate-neutral by 2050, encompassing initiatives like reducing greenhouse gas emissions, promoting renewable energy and enhancing energy efficiency. Other countries have started phase out carbon emissions or plan to do so, through a combination of carbon taxes and regulatory constraints on the use of dirty energy sources. Although the long-term benefits of the green transition are extreme and evident, there is more discussion about what the costs of the transition are in the short term, how to mitigate them without slowing the transition down and how the green transition affects different policy decisions. In this report, we explore how the green transition affects the traditional monetary policy objectives of maintaining price stability while sustaining economic activity, and how different monetary policy decisions affect the green transition. Our analysis thus remains neutral regarding whether central banks should actively pursue “green policies”. Instead, we focus on unveiling mechanisms that are relevant to policymakers regardless of the centra