美联储-信息不完整与劳动力市场复苏缓慢（英）

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemInternational Finance Discussion PapersISSN 1073-2500 (Print)ISSN 2767-4509 (Online)Number 1423September 2025Imperfect Information and Slow Recoveries in the Labor MarketAnushka MitraPlease cite this paper as:Mitra, Anushka (2025). “Imperfect Information and Slow Recoveries in the Labor Market,”International Finance Discussion Papers 1423.Washington: Board of Governors of theFederal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2025.1423.NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDPs) are preliminary materials circulated to stimu-late discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors anddo not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. Referencesin publications to the International Finance Discussion Papers Series (other than acknowledgement) shouldbe cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Recent IFDPs are availableon the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from theSocial Science Research Network electronic library at www.ssrn.com.Imperfect Information and Slow Recoveries in the LaborMarketAnushka Mitra *Federal Reserve BoardAbstractAbstract: The unemployment rate remains elevated long after recessions, a persistence that standardsearch-and-matching models cannot explain. I show that noise shocks—expectational errors due to thenoise in received signals about aggregate shocks—account for much of this sluggishness. Using a structuralVAR, I find that absent noise shocks unemployment would have recovered to its pre-recession level sixquarters earlier over 1968–2019. To interpret this evidence, I develop a search-and-matching model with on-the-job search, endogenous search effort, and wage rigidity. Embedding imperfect information generatestwo channels of persistence: slow learning amplifies the effects of persistent productivity shocks, andnoise shocks provide an additional source of sluggishness, further magnified by sticky wages and vacancyposting. The model successfully replicates both the slow recovery of unemployment and systematicforecast errors, highlighting imperfect information as a key mechanism behind post-recession labormarket dynamics.Keywords: Imperfect Information, Labor Market, Business CyclesJEL Codes: E24, E32, E70*anushka.mitra@frb.gov. I am deeply grateful to Ayşegül Şahin, Andreas Mueller and Olivier Coibion, for their constant guidanceand support. I remain indebted to Saroj Bhattarai, Andres Drenik, Stefano Eusepi and Christopher Huckfeldt for their insightfuldiscussions. I thank Gadi Barlevy, Jason Faberman, Bart Hobijn, and Giorgio Topa for their feedback and insights. I further thankSadhika Bagga, Robert Barsky, Chris Boehm, Joel David, Keshav Dogra, Filippo Ferroni, Francois Gourio, Gizem Kosar, Niklas Kroner,Donggyu Lee, Thomas Lubik, Davide Melcangi, Leonardo Melosi, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Jane