世界银行-拥抱和塑造变革：转型中的中东和北非的人类发展（英）

AHuman Development for a Middle East and North Africa in TransitionSHAPINGCHANGE EMBRACING AND August 2025Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized©2025 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved.This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. This report is part of the task “Embracing and Shaping Change: Human Development for a Middle East and North Africa in Transition” (P502135) produced by the MENA People team.Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “Morgandi, M., Koettl-Brodmann, J., Gentilini, U., Duran, D., Caillaud F., Saadah, F. 2025. Embracing and Shaping Change: Human Development for a Middle East and North Africa in Transition© World Bank.”Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design: Dania KibbiEMBRACING AND SHAPING CHANGEHuman Development for a Middle East and North Africa in TransitionAugust 2025ContentsAcknowledgements 2Foreword 6Executive Summary 8Investing in future-fit HD policies enables people to seize emerging opportunities 10To deliver on this vision, institutions should address longstanding governance gaps and fiscal systems should make space for emerging priorities 11A single direction of travel with different emphases in a diverse region 121. Introduction 132. Megatrends will strongly affect MENA countries 17Demographic change is unevenly