IMF-欧盟碳边界调整机制的宏观经济暴露：以中东和中亚为例（英）

Macroeconomic Exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism The Case of the Middle East and Central Asia Mariz Abdou, Hasan Dudu, Kerstin Gerling, and Dalia Kadissi WP/25/182 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 SEP * This project started when Mariz Abdou, who is currently at CERDI, Clermont Auvergne University, was an intern at the IMF. HasanDudu, Kerstin Gerling, and Dalia Kadissi are IMF staff members. The authors would like to thank Subir Lall, Alexander Tieman,Eliakim Kakpo, and seminar participants at the IMF for their insightful comments and suggestions; and Geoffroy Dolphin, Salem Nechi, and Zeina Hasna for valuable discussions on data and methodological approaches. The usual caveats apply. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/182 IMF Working Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Macroeconomic Exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: The Case of the Middle East and Central Asia Prepared by Mariz Abdou, Hasan Dudu, Kerstin Gerling, and Dalia Kadissi* Authorized for distribution by Alexander Tieman August 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Taking the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as given, our paper evaluates the impact of this terms-of-trade shock on the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA). Using a novel methodology and fresh data applied to the latest CBAM legislation, we both quantify and decompose the financial burden countries face as their exports to the EU become subject to a greenhouse gas-based fee starting in January 2026. Our analysis reveals that while the average effects of CBAM in ME&CA are modest, the region will shoulder one of the highest burdens worldwide, totaling US$1.7 billion annually (equivalent to 0.03 percent of GDP and a 14 percent surcharge on CBAM exports to the EU). The Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) subregion will bear a greater share of this burden than the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) due to stronger trade ties with the EU and higher emission intensity. Substantial country- and sector-level differences in CBAM exposure emphasize the need for tailored policy responses to mitigate the broader macroeconomic effects. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Abdou, M., Dudu, H., Gerling, K., Kadissi, D., 2025. Macroeconomic Exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: The Case of the Middle East and Central Asia, IMF Working Paper No: WP/25/182 Washington, DC JEL Classification Numbers: F14; F18; H23