世界银行-天气预报的经济价值：定量系统文献综述（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11213The Economic Value of Weather ForecastsA Quantitative Systematic Literature ReviewHannah Farkas Manuel Linsenmeier Marta Talevi Paolo Avner Bramka Arga Jafino Moussa Sidibe Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global DepartmentSeptember 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11213This study systematically reviews the literature that quan-tifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agri-culture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is con-centrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-anal-ysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barri-ers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-enve-lope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorolog-ical services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.This paper is a product of the Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution t