欧洲央行-欧洲央行货币分析师调查汇总结果（英）

ECB-PUBLIC The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts Aggregated Results September 2025 The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), September 2025, Aggregate Results – Contents 1 ECB-PUBLIC Contents 1 Key ECB interest rates, market rates and market conditions 2 2 Asset purchases and reinvestment 7 3 Refinancing operations 9 4 Macroeconomic outlook 10 5 Other comments 14 Summary Report This report summarises the aggregated results of the Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) of September 2025. The survey period was from 25 to 27 August 2025 and 65 respondents participated. Throughout the document, the cross-sectional distribution is defined as the distribution of the modal answers, and the average probability distribution is defined as the average of the probabilities assigned by respondents to different ranges of the measure in question. This report uses abbreviations for key monetary policy parameters. For additional specific terminology please refer to the ECB glossary. The survey questionnaire and more information is available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/sma/html/index.en.html The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), September 2025, Aggregate Results – Key ECB interest rates, market rates and market conditions 2 ECB-PUBLIC 1 Key ECB interest rates, market rates and market conditions 1.1 In the first part of the table, please indicate your interest rate expectations for the reserve maintenance period following the Governing Council meeting. In the second part, please indicate the expected value at the end of the quarter. Expectations for the DFR (percentages per annum) 25th percentile Median 75th percentile Number of responses Sep-2025 2.00 2.00 2.00 65 Oct-2025 2.00 2.00 2.00 65 Dec-2025 1.75 2.00 2.00 65 Feb-2026 1.75 1.90 2.00 65 Mar-2026 1.75 1.75 2.00 65 Apr-2026 1.75 1.75 2.00 65 Jun-2026 1.75 1.85 2.00 65 Jul-2026 1.75 1.85 2.00 65 2026Q3 1.75 2.00 2.00 63 2026Q4 1.75 2.00 2.00 63 2027Q1 1.80 2.00 2.00 62 2027Q2 2.00 2.00 2.25 62 2027Q3 2.00 2.00 2.25 62 2027Q4 2.00 2.00 2.25 62 2028Q1 2.00 2.13 2.50 58 2028Q2 2.00 2.25 2.50 58 2028Q3 2.00 2.25 2.50 58 2028Q4 2.00 2.25 2.50 58 long run 2.00 2.00 2.25 64 Note: Cross-sectional distribution. Series key: SMA.SEP25.MEDIAN.A.I.U2._Z.DFR. Replace "MEDIAN" with "P25” or "P75" to obtain the 25th and 75th percentile, respectively. Choose "GC", "Q" or "A" for Governing Council, quarterly or annual frequency, respectively. Expectations for the MRO (percentages per annum) 25th percentile Median 75th percentile Number of responses Sep-2025 2.15 2.15 2.15 65 Oct-2025 2.15 2.15 2.15 65 Dec-2025 1.90 2.15 2.15 65 Feb-2026 1.90 2.05 2.15 65 The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA), September 2025, Aggregate Results – Key ECB interest rates, market rates and market conditions 3 ECB-PUBLIC 25th percentile Median 75th percentile Number of responses Mar-2026 1.90 1.90 2.15 65 Apr-2026 1.90 1.90 2.15 65 Jun-2026 1.90 2.00 2.15 65 Jul-2026 1.90 2.00 2.15 65 202