国际清算银行-量化宽松和紧缩政策对企业有何影响？（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1286 How Do Quantitative Easing and Tightening Affect Firms? by Egemen Eren, Denis Gorea and Daojing Zhai Monetary and Economic Department September 2025 JEL classification: E44, G11, G12, G23 Keywords: quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, debt, maturity, real effects BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) How Do Quantitative Easing and Tightening Affect Firms?†Egemen Eren†Denis Gorea‡Daojing Zhai§August 25, 2025AbstractWe study how firms respond to quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT)policies of the Federal Reserve. We construct a novel time series of maturity-specific cen-tral bank balance sheet shocks covering multiple QE and QT programs. In response tocentral bank purchases of government bonds, we find that, on average, firms adjust theirdebt maturity structure, reduce interest expenses and accumulate cash, while their totaldebt, capital and employment remain largely unchanged. The impact of these policiesdiffers depending on the targeted maturity segment and the credit quality of firms. Policytransmission primarily runs via bond markets. There are positive spillovers to high-ratednon-US firms. Our findings can inform the design of balance sheet policies.Keywords: quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, debt, maturity, real effectsJEL Classification Numbers: E44, G11, G12, G23†We are grateful to Ryan Banerjee, Veronica De Falco, Darrell Duffie, Paul Fontanier, Sebastian Hil-lenbrand, Alan Moreira, Felipe Saffie, Alp Simsek, Jonathan Wallen and seminar participants at the BIS,Hong Kong University, and DNB for helpful comments and suggestions. Alexis Maurin and Jose MariaVidal Pastor provided excellent research assistance. Parts of this paper were written while Zhai visitedthe BIS. The views in this article are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the BIS. Allerrors are our own.†Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Email: egemen.eren@bis.org‡Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Email: denis.gorea@bis.org§Yale SOM; Email: daojing.zhai@yale.edu“The problem with QE is it works in practice, but it doesn’t work in theory.”Ben Bernanke1IntroductionDo central bank balance sheet policies genuinely affect economic activity in prac-tice? These policies, known as as quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening(QT), typically involve the purchase, s