IMF-将气候变化纳入宏观经济分析：影响渠道、数据、模型和情景综述（英）

Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios Pritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino, Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos Tagklis, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Christoph Ungerer, Javier Uruñuela López, and Sha Yu. WP/25/170 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 AUG © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/170IMF Working Paper Strategy, Policy, and Review DepartmentIntegrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Models, and Scenarios Prepared by Pritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino, Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos Tagklis, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Christoph Ungerer, Javier Uruñuela López, and Sha Yu Authorized for distribution by Pritha Mitra August 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Climate change poses significant and diverse impacts on countries’ macroeconomic and financial stability, resulting in complex macro-critical policy challenges. Consequently, where significant, country-level macroeconomic analysis may need to integrate climate change-related impacts and policies. This paper reviews (i) climate change and related policies’ channels of impact on the real, fiscal, external, monetary, and financial sectors over various time horizons and (ii) corresponding data sources, models, and climate scenarios that could be applied in assessing the impact of physical climate risks as well as adaptation, transition, and mitigation policies. The paper concludes with considerations for future work.. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Mitra, P., Raissi, M., Versailles, B., Ivanyna, M., Kirabaeva, K., Massetti, E., Montes de Oca Leon, M., Nguyen, H., Oman, W., Rebei, N., Tagklis, F., Zhang, A., Ungerer, C., Uruñuela López, J., & Yu, S. (2025). Navigating Climate Change Impacts: A Review of Data, Models, and Scenarios for Country-Level Macroeconomic Analysis. IMF Working Paper No. WP/25/170. International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: O40, O44, Q54, Q58 Keywords: Climate change, economic growth, adaptation Author’s E-Mail Address: pmitra@imf.org; mraissi@imf.org; bversailles@imf.org INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS Integrating Climate Change into Macroeconomic Analysis: A Review of Impac