欧洲央行-欧洲央行货币分析师调查（SMA）（英）

ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) – September 2025 1 ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) September 2025 1 Key ECB interest rates, market rates and market conditions 1.1 In the first part of the table, please indicate your interest rate expectations for the reserve maintenance period following the Governing Council meeting. In the second part, please indicate the expected value at the end of the quarter. The long run should be interpreted as the horizon over which the effects of all shocks will have vanished. Please, omit the %-sign when entering the data. DFR MRO MLF €STR 3-month EURIBOR Governing Council meetings (% p.a.) (% p.a.) (% p.a.) (% p.a.) (% p.a.) Sep-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Quarters 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2027 Q1 2027 Q2 2027 Q3 2027 Q4 2028 Q1 2028 Q2 2028 Q3 2028 Q4 Long run Long run ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) – September 2025 2 1.2 Please indicate the percentage probabilities that you attach to the following possible changes in the DFR at the next two Governing Council meetings. For each row, the sum of percentage probabilities must add up to 100%. Omit the %-sign when entering the data. <-75 bps -75 bps -50 bps -25 bps -10 bps 0 bps 10 bps 25 bps 50 bps 75 bps >75 bps DFR September 2025 meeting October 2025 meeting 1.3 Please indicate your expectations for the swap rate or bond yield of the following financial instruments at the end of the stated dates. Omit the %-sign when entering the data. 10-year OIS (based on €STR) German 10-year government bond French 10-year government bond Italian 10-year government bond Spanish 10-year government bond (% p.a.) (% p.a.) (% p.a.) (% p.a.) (% p.a.) 1 year ahead (Sep 2026) 2 years ahead (Sep 2027) ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) – September 2025 3 2 Asset purchases and reinvestment 2.1 Please provide your expectations for the Eurosystem stock of bonds under the APP and the PEPP at the end of the stated quarters and years. Eurosystem APP stock of bonds Eurosystem PEPP stock of bonds (book value, EUR billions) (book value, EUR billions) Previous quarter (end of 2025 Q2) 2,692 1,563 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2026 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2027 Q1 2027 Q2 2027 Q3 2027 Q4 Years 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2.2 Please indicate how likely you think it is that the TPI will be first activated within the time periods indicated below. The sum of the percentage probabilities must equal 100%. Omit the %-sign when entering the data. Probability in % Within the next 3 months Within the next 4 to 6 months After 6 months Never ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) – September 2025 4 3 Refinancing operations 3.1 Please provide your expectations for the outstanding amounts of refinancing operations distinguishing between MRO and LTROs. Please indicate the ex