国际清算银行-趋同需要什么？金融和资本的作用（英）

BIS Working PapersNo 1284 What is needed for convergence? The role of finance and capital by Bryan Hardy and Can Sever Monetary and Economic Department August 2025 JEL classification: O11, O14, O40 Keywords: productivity, convergence, financial development, capital, human capital, structural transformation BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) 1 What is Needed for Convergence? The Role of Capital and Finance∗ Bryan Hardy Can Sever Bank for International Settlements International Monetary Fund Abstract: What is needed for poor countries to catch up with rich ones? This paper first documents the role of human capital, physical capital, and financial development in convergence in manufacturing labor productivity across countries, and then examines the influence of economic structure and financial development at the aggregate level. Using industry-level data from manufacturing industries in a large set of countries over the period 1980-2022, we show that manufacturing industries exhibit strong unconditional convergence over time, but there is variation in the pace of convergence: Greater reliance on human capital in an industry is linked to faster convergence, whereas dependence on physical capital has no bearing. Instead, industries with a greater dependence on physical capital see convergence only if there is sufficient financial development. At the country level, we find that convergence tends to be faster as countries shift away from agriculture (which typically requires less human capital), and towards industrial production or services. Furthermore, poorer countries that initially have a higher share of agriculture in their GDP have been shifting away from agriculture at a faster rate, which may have contributed to the observed aggregate convergence. Greater financial development is also linked to faster convergence at the country level. Keywords: Productivity, convergence, financial development, capital, human capital, structural transformation JEL: O11, O14, O40 1. IntroductionEconomists have long sought to understand what makes countries poor or rich, and how poor countries can grow. Out of this analysis sprang an important prediction: Poor countries have high returns to investment, and so if capital is allocated efficiently across countries, we should see poor countries grow faster than rich ones (Solow 1956). This “unconditional con