世界银行-中东和北非地区儿童早期接触干旱的长期影响（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11190Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Droughts in MENANelly ElmallakhRoberta GattiAsif M. IslamMennatallah Emam Mousa Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan RegionOffice of the Chief EconomistAugust 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11190This paper examines the long-term impacts of early-life drought exposure on the human capital and socioeco-nomic outcomes of women born in the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco across more than five decades. Using a pooled cross-section of 13 rounds of the Demo-graphic and Health Surveys, the paper demonstrates that early childhood drought exposure significantly hinders female education, leading to lower educational attainment, increased illiteracy, and reduced likelihood of secondary school completion. These adverse effects are concentrated among women from rural households, suggesting that drought impacts operate through disruptions to agricultural livelihoods. Furthermore, the paper finds that early-life drought exposure is associated with reduced adult height, an increased likelihood of early marriage, and continued engagement in agricultural labor. This study provides novel evidence on the enduring human costs of climate variability in the Middle East and North Africa region, highlighting the urgent need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of rural women in the face of climate change.This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at nelmallakh@worldbank.org, rgatti@worldbank.org, aislam@worldbank.org, and mmousa1@worldbank.org.Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Droughts in MENA Nelly Elmallakh, Roberta Gatti, Asif M. Islam, and Mennatallah Emam Mousa1 Keywords: Climate change, droughts, SPEI, human capi