IMF-赞比亚：选定问题（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/242 ZAMBIA SELECTED ISSUES This paper on Zambia was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on June 30, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. August 2025 ZAMBIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved By African Department Prepared By Daniel Gurara, Linda Spahia, with inputs from Balazs Stadler and Ignatius Masilokwa and assistance from Steven Qi and Suri Pan (all AFR) FIRM GROWTH IN ZAMBIA _____________________________________________________________ 3 A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________ 3 B. Firm Landscape ________________________________________________________________________ 5 C. Constraints to Firm Growth ____________________________________________________________ 6 D. New Firm Formation __________________________________________________________________ 10 E. Conclusion and Policy Implications ____________________________________________________ 13 BOXES 1. Good Practices to Support Formalization ______________________________________________ 6 2. Entrepreneurship Landscape in Zambia ________________________________________________ 9 FIGURES 1. Labor Productivity Growth: Within vs. Structural Reallocation __________________________ 4 2. Firm Structure and Employment Patterns ______________________________________________ 5 3. Access to Credit and Firm Performance ________________________________________________ 7 4. Formal Business Density: Zambia vs Comparators _____________________________________ 10 TABLES 1. Top Business Constraints Reported by Firms ___________________________________________ 6 2. Panel Fixed Effect Estimates Firm Growth ______________________________________________ 9 References _______________________________________________________________________________ 15 CONTENTS June 30, 2025 ZAMBIA 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ZAMBIA: BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE SHOCKS ______________________________16 A. Context _______________________________________________________________________________ 16 B. Contribution to Global Emissions and Mitigation Commitments ______________________ 17 C. Changes in Temperature and Rainfall Patterns ________________________________________ 19 D. Impact of Natural Disasters ___________________________________________________________ 24 E. Impact on Energy Generation _________________________________________________________ 27 F. Strengthening Climate Adaptation for Long-Term Resilience _________________________ 28 G. Conclusion ________________