the flow show -Gold-Binger

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12. 12863724 The Flow Show Gold-Binger Scores on the Doors: gold 30.3%, bitcoin 25.5%, stocks 12.6%, IG bonds 8.1%, HY bonds 7.6%, govt bonds 6.6%, cash 2.6%, commods 1.3%, US$ -9.6%, oil -11.0% YTD. Zeitgeist: “Tariffs, taxes, Iran, Russia, China, that was April wall of worry to climb; now we’ve just got China to go…when Xi & Trump shaking hands on the Great Wall it’s the top”. The Biggest Picture: best performing FX in ’25…Russian ruble up 42% (Chart 3), best stock market…Poland up 54%, Ukraine bonds up 61% past 12 months (Chart 2), all run further on upcoming Russia/Ukraine/NATO peace; but best Q3 peace trades…long Japan, China, India, all oil importers, all next in line for lower tariffs/trade deals; relative peace losers…defense/tech stocks & Middle East (Saudi stock market -10% YTD - Chart 4). The Price is Right: “America First = US$ last”; 2020s = end of Japan deflation, start of Europe fiscal stimulus, start of China consumer rebalancing, all +ve global trends Trump accelerating; US$ in bear, international in vogue structural not cyclical; China = our fave play…unloved, peak tariffs, consumer stimulus, record trade surplus (Charts 9 & 10). Tale of the Tape: Mag7+AVGO+ORCL+PLTR = 80% of SPX return since Liberation Day; US stock concentration, etc. but reinforced by pro-monopoly American First policy + AI on cusp of US labor market disruption (graduate U-rate spike to 8.1% - was 4.0% in Dec'23 – Chart 5) so concentrated US stock return to continue until tech credit spreads widen (Chart 7), signal AI cash burn threatening AI overbuild trade (was same story H2’99, as was recession true spark for productivity spurt - Chart 6). Chart 2: War & Peace Ukraine USD sovereign bond price Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Feb'22Russia/UkraineNov'22020406080100120140'00'02'04'06'08'10'12'14'16'18'20'22'24'26Ukraine USD sovereign bond price08 August 2025 Investment Strategy Global Mich