IMF-经济构造：美国经济结构变化和生产率趋势（英）

Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Changes and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo, and Michael Spence WP/25/156IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 AUG * “The authors would like to thank Codrina Rada for helpful comments.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/155IMF Working Paper Asia & the Pacific Department Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Changes and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy Prepared by Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo, and Michael Spence Authorized for distribution by Masahiro Nozaki August 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: The U.S. economy has undergone profound structural transformations in recent decades. This descriptive study analyzes tradable and nontradable sectoral trends, with our findings demonstrating that the share of tradable sector employment and, within it, manufacturing employment, leveled off in the decade following the GFC after declining for several decades. Still, by 2023, the nontradable sector accounted for a large majority of employment and real value added. At the same time, the tradable sector exhibited robust productivity growth of nearly 3 percent, juxtaposed against far lower 0.7 percent growth in nontradable sectors. This marked divergence raises concerns regarding inequality and the sustainability of economic growth. JEL Classification Numbers: E23, E24, F16, F62 F66, O14, O47, O51 Keywords: structural change; productivity; tradable; nontradable Author’s E-Mail Address: Azenuib@denison.edu, SHlatshwayo@imf.org, MSpence98@gmail.com IMF WORKING PAPERS Title of WP INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at Structural Changes and Productivity Trends in the U.S. Economy Prepared by Belinda Azenui, Sandile Hlatshwayo, and Michael Spence1 1 “The authors would like to thank Codrina Rada for helpful comments. Economic Tectonics: A Closer Look at StructuralChanges and Productivity Trends in the U.S. EconomyBelinda Azenui ∗Sandile Hlatshwayo †Michael Spence ‡July 21, 2025AbstractThe U.S. economy has undergone profound structural transformation in recent decades,predominantly influenced by the forces of globalization, rapid technological innova-tion, and the residual effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This descriptivestudy analyzes trends in U.S. employment, real value added, and labor productivity,highlighting a pronounced divergence between tradable and nontradab