欧洲央行-气候变化、企业和总生产率（英）

Working Paper Series Climate change, firms, and aggregate productivity Andrea Caggese, Andrea Chiavari, Sampreet Singh Goraya, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3084 Abstract: This paper uses a general equilibrium framework to examine the effectsof temperature on firm-level demand, productivity, and input allocation efficiency,deriving an aggregate damage function for climate change. Using data from Italianfirms and detailed climate data, it uncovers a sizable negative effect of extremetemperatures on firm-level productivity and revenue-based marginal product ofcapital. Based on these estimates, the model generates aggregate productivitylosses from local temperature fluctuations that are higher than previously thought,ranging from 0.60 to 6.82 percent depending on the scenario and the extent ofadaptation. Notably, these losses are approximately four times greater than thoseestimated by averaging firm-level losses in a representative firm model, whichdoes not capture frictions that alter allocative efficiency in a heterogeneous firmsetting.Therefore, incorporating our framework into Integrated AssessmentModels is likely to revise upwards the estimated economic costs of climate change.Keywords: Climate Change, Aggregate Productivity, Firms, Allocative Efficiency.JEL Codes: Q54, D24, D22, O44ECB Working Paper Series No 30841Non-Technical SummaryClimate change is altering global economic conditions, but its impact on firm productivityremains poorly understood. This study examines how rising temperatures affect businessesby linking firm-level data to aggregate economic damages. The central insight is that tem-perature influences firm productivity through two key channels: direct effects, such as lowerworker efficiency or machinery performance, and indirect effects, which arise when firmsface difficulties adjusting inputs like capital or labor in response to climate shifts.A key contribution of the study is demonstrating that input adjustment frictions signif-icantly amplify the productivity costs of climate change. For example, when firms cannotquickly scale down capital in response to lower productivity, they experience inefficiencies,leading to larger aggregate economic losses than previously estimated. This finding challengestraditional climate-economy models, which tend to underestimate the long-term economiccosts of warming.Using firm-level data from Italy (1999–2013) and high-resolution climate records, thestudy quantifies these effects. Results show an inverted U-shaped relationship between tem-perature and firm productivity: moderate temperatures have little impact, but extreme heatsignificantly lowers firm sales and input efficiency. Importantly, firms struggle to adjust capi-tal in response to climate shocks, leading to indirect effects that double