欧洲央行-整个供应链的关税（英）

Working Paper Series Tariffs across the supply chain Nicolò Gnocato, Carlos Montes-Galdón, Giovanni Stamato Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3081 AbstractWhat are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? Weset up a two-region, multi-sector model with production networks, sticky prices and wages,and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. We show that import tariffson final goods have a smaller negative impact on GDP compared to tariffs on intermediateinputs, as final goods can be more readily substituted with domestic alternatives. In contrast,tariffs on intermediate inputs lead to larger GDP losses, given the limited substitutability offoreign inputs and their role in global supply chains. Moreover, inflation persistence is lowerunder tariffs on final goods, whereas tariffs on intermediate goods amplify cost pressuresthrough production linkages. The results imply that a revenue-equivalent approach to importtariffs, targeting only final goods, can cushion the adverse effects of trade wars.Keywords: Tariffs, Production Networks, Inflation.JEL Classification: E31, E32, F12, F13, F41.ECB Working Paper Series No 30811Non-technical summaryIn the context of rising trade tensions and increasing recourse to protectionist policies, this paperstudies how the structure of tariffs influences their macroeconomic effects. Specifically, it askswhether the economic consequences of import tariffs differ depending on whether they targetfinal goods consumed by households or intermediate goods used as inputs in production. Using anovel multi-sector model with two regions—representing the European Union and the rest of theworld—we show that the location of tariffs along the supply chain has significant implications forboth GDP and inflation dynamics.This paper builds on a rich body of literature on international production networks and NewKeynesian macroeconomics, but introduces a novel focus on how tariffs propagate through globalsupply chains. We begin by developing a simplified analytical model that illustrates the coremechanisms at play. In this setting, tariffs on final goods raise consumer prices temporarilybut have a limited impact on output, as households can substitute foreign goods with domesticalternatives. In contrast, tariffs on intermediate goods—such as imported components or rawmaterials—directly increase firms’ production costs. Because such inputs are typically harder tosubstitute, the effects are more persistent and disruptive, leading to deeper GDP contractionsand longer-lasting inflationary pressures.These insights are then tested and expanded in a fully-fledged quantitative model. Themodel incorporates multiple sectors, sticky wages and prices, investment frictions, and realisticinput-output linkages across countries