世界银行-保护刚果盆地的森林：刚果共和国绩效挂钩融资的经验基础（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11177Protecting Forests in the Congo BasinAn Empirical Basis for Performance-Linked Financing for the Republic of CongoDieter WangPhilipp KollendaVeerle de SmitKanta Kumari RigaudTsegaye Ginbo GatisoAlexander GolubEnvironment Global DepartmentJuly 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11177The Republic of Congo, a country with extensive tropical forests and low deforestation rates, needs to balance export-driven development, especially through timber production, and sustainable forest management. Despite national commitments to conserve and restore forests, such efforts remain underfunded. Empirical analysis shows that histor-ical deforestation is closely tied to timber and agricultural export prices, the real effective exchange rate, dry weather, and demographic trends. Under a business-as-usual sce-nario, deforestation could rise sharply without effective policy interventions. Sangha and Likouala provinces, which are rich in undisturbed forests and new concessions, are par-ticularly at risk. Past oil-driven revenues have contributed to lower deforestation by shifting economic focus away from land-intensive activities; however, transitioning from oil dependency requires diversification into the forest sector which in turn requires strengthening sustainable logging practices and more robust institutional frameworks. This research provides a model-based benchmark to define key performance indicators for deforestation reductions and to set feasible and ambitious targets for protecting forests while pursuing diversified economic growth. Transparent performance indicators along with feasible, but ambitious targets are a critical for results-based financing instruments. They are critical to unlock public and private capital to support economic growth and conserve the standing forests. This model has relevance to the other Congo Basin and tropical forest countries with extensive forests.This paper is a product of the Environment Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around th