世界银行-中非经货共同体经济晴雨表，2025年6月，第8卷（英）

CEMAC2025Economic BarometerJune 2025Economic PolicyVOL. 8Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedCameroonChadCentral African RepublicEquatorial GuineaGabonRepublic of CongoCEMAC2025VOL. 8Economic BarometerJune 2025Economic Policy23CEMAC Economic Barometer – June 2025 (Vol. 8)The CEMAC semi-annual Economic Barometer was prepared by a World Bank Economic Policy team comprising of Robert Johann Utz (Lead Economist, Team Leader), Djeneba Doumbia (Economist, Team Leader), Erick Tjong (Economist, Team Leader), and Chris Belmert Milindi Katindi (ET Consultant), under the guidance of Sandeep Mahajan (Practice Manager) and Cheick Fantamady Kanté (Division Director). Other team members include Samba Ba (Senior Economist), Rick Emery Tsouck Ibounde (Senior Economist), Demet Kaya (Senior Economist), Sonia Barbara Ondo Ndong (Senior Economist), Pierre Mandon (Economist), Blaise Ehowe Nguem (Economist), Francis Ghislain Ngomba Bodi (Economist), Mahamat Abdramane Moustapha (Economist), and Kabinet Kaba (Economist). The team is thankful to Joseph Neiville Agbor (Senior Financial Sector Specialist, World Bank), Michael Corlett (Senior Financial Sector Specialist, World Bank) for their inputs, to Jean-Claude Nguemeni (Director of Multilateral Surveillance, CEMAC Commission) for his comments and to Ifeoma Clementina Ikenye and Irene Sitienei (Program Assistants) for their support. The report was cleared by Cheick Fantamady Kanté (Division Director).11 The update reflects information available as of April 22, 2025. Please contact Djeneba Doumbia (ddoumbia@worldbank.org) and Erick Tjong (etjong@worldbank.org) for any questions or comments.Acknowledgments4The CEMAC Economic Barometer is a semi-annual World Bank publication that presents a snapshot of recent developments in and the economic outlook of the CEMAC region, followed by a brief assessment at the country level. Economic activities in the CEMAC region are estimated to have expanded by 3.0 percent in 2024 (up from 2.0 percent in 2023). However, growth is expected to decelerate to 2.4 percent in 2025 amid declining oil prices, subdued global demand, and a highly uncertain global trade environment. Inflationary pressures continued to gradually abate, which allowed the regional central bank (BEAC) to start easing monetary policy in early 2025. The region’s reserve, fiscal and trade positions deteriorated in 2024 due to lower oil prices, highlighting CEMAC’s high exposure to volatile markets for hydrocarbons and, to a lesser degree, a few other commodities like timber and minerals. A worrying trend in CEMAC, from a development point of view, is the rising poverty levels. In view of modest growth, high unemployment and lack of economic opportunities, especially for the youth, a third of CEMAC’s population is estimated to live in extreme poverty by 2024, that is, under $2.15 per day in 2017 PPP. To foster more robust growth, create more jobs, de