世界经济论坛-旅游业未来的四种情景（英）

Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism W H I T E P A P E RJ U L Y 2 0 2 5In collaboration with KearneyContentsImages: Getty Images, Unsplash© 2025 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.ForewordExecutive summary1 Using scenarios to shape the future of T&T1.1 Four variables driving future scenarios2 Scenarios for the future of T&T 2.1 Major scenarios identified3 The way forward Contributors Endnotes345588171820Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism 2ForewordThe travel and tourism industry has staged one of the most dramatic recoveries in modern economic history, defying predictions.After losing more than $4 trillion five years ago during the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry’s remarkable resilience has led to a rebound, perhaps underscoring that foresight is more important than ever to proactively manage change in a world defined by complexity. Consider this: Japan surged to a record 36.9 million international visitors in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by more than 15% and cementing its position as a global tourism leader; and Venice introduced a €5 day-tripper fee to control an overwhelming flow of visitors. Around the globe, hotel occupancy rates in major destinations now exceed 2019 levels. Meanwhile, strategic partnerships between nations are reshaping travel corridors, with new bilateral agreements streamlining access while airlines forge deeper alliances to rebuild global connectivity.These signs of the industry’s strength and durability aren’t isolated incidents. They’re early signals of a profound transformation reshaping how, where and why we travel.What lies ahead?This paper outlines possible futures to help investors, operators and policy-makers make sense of four forces that are rewriting the rules of travel and tourism – shifting geopolitics, climate urgency, technological disruption and evolving values – and be better prepared to navigate this dynamic change. By 2030, these forces will converge, potentially creating four possible future scenarios: –A thousand islands world. Fragmentation kills trust. Travel withers. –Harmonious horizons. Stability breeds exploration. Overtourism threatens paradise. –Green ascent. Environmental consciousness transforms travel. Equity gaps widen. –Tech turbulence. AI personalizes everything. Humans adapt or get left behind.The future isn’t inevitable. But it’s arr