IMF-在欧元区缺少进口：国内货币政策，跨境同步和需求组成（英）

Missing Imports in the Euro Area: Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition Francesca Caselli and Allan Gloe Dizioli WP/25/140 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 JUL WORKING PAPERS Missing Imports in the Euro Area: Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition Prepared by Francesca Caselli and Allan Gloe Dizioli1 1 We thank Rudolfs Bems, Helge Berger, Oya Celasun, Malhar Nabar, and Joseph Platzer for helpful comments and suggestions. We thank Xiaosheng Guo for constructing the input-output trade weights used in the analysis and Kayla Qin for excellent research assistance. * We thank Rudolfs Bems, Helge Berger, Oya Celasun, Malhar Nabar, and Joseph Platzer for helpful comments and suggestions.We thank Xiaosheng Guo for constructing the input-output trade weights used in the analysis and Kayla Qin for excellent researchassistance.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/140IMF Working Paper European Department Missing Imports in the Euro Area: Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition Prepared by Francesca Caselli and Allan Gloe Dizioli* Authorized for distribution by Malhar Nabar July 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper sheds new light on an overlooked channel of monetary transmission: the relationship between central bank interest rate policy and the economy’s trade position. It focuses on how tightening monetary policy, by altering the composition of domestic demand—due to different sensitivities to interest rates and the varying import content of each demand component and its subcategories—ultimately influence import dynamics. In 2023, the euro area faced a significant contraction in imports, despite resilient GDP growth, challenging traditional import elasticity models. While an import intensity-adjusted demand framework explains the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) trade-GDP disconnect, it fails to account for the euro area’s recent import shortfall, indicating that additional factors beyond the varying degree of import intensity of each demand component are at play. Accounting for lending rates in the regression framework significantly improves the model’s explanatory power for this recent period, underscoring the role of monetary policy in the recent decline in imports. Using local projection methods with high-frequency monetary policy shocks, we confirm that monetary tightening negatively impacts imports