PitchBook-美国私募股权展望：年中更新（英）

1PitchBook Data, Inc.Nizar Tarhuni Executive Vice President of Research and Market IntelligenceMarina Lukatsky Global Head of Research, Credit and US Private EquityInstitutional Research GroupAnalysisGarrett Hinds Senior Research Analyst, Private Equity garrett.hinds@pitchbook.comJinny Choi Senior Research Analyst, Private Equity jinny.choi@pitchbook.comKyle Walters Research Analyst, Private Equity kyle.walters@pitchbook.comDataNick Zambrano Data Analystpbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.comPublishingDesigned by Megan WoodardPublished on June 24, 20252025 US Private Equity Outlook: Midyear UpdateChecking in on our 2025 US PE predictionsPitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, most accurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets.p. 3The share of cumulative capital raised for private debt funds will hit a decade high of 33% for the top 10 managers.p. 6PE-backed IPOs will capture 40% of US IPO capital.p. 8The maturity wall facing PE funds will grow as GPs struggle to wind down older vintages that enter their harvesting stage.p. 11PE will see a decline in annual fundraising following multiple years of robust activity.2025 outlooks22025 US Private Equity Outlook: Midyear UpdateGarrett HindsSenior Research Analyst, Private Equitygarrett.hinds@pitchbook.comIntroductionAt the end of every year, we share our views on how the year ahead will unfold for US private equity. We offered four outlooks for 2025, and it is time to take stock of those trends to see how they are tracking. We look forward to sharing our takes on these and other developments throughout the year in our four quarterly reports, the US PE Breakdown, the US PE Middle Market Report, the US Public PE and GP Deal Roundup, and the Global M&A Report, as well as our semiannual Global Private Debt Report.At this time last year, the key debate centered on inflation and when base rates would be lowered. Today, a different controversy takes center stage: global trade. Hopes for a resurgence in growth driven by probusiness policies have dimmed, overshadowed by the unpredictability of US tariffs. Public markets broke new highs in December, only to surrender gains in April. The volatility was severe, but public markets are now back to pricing in an optimistic scenario.The other defining uncertainty is the prospect of a recession in 2025. In Q2, recession expectations edged higher, amplifying the unease. Today’s markets are no longer fixated on rate cuts—they are searching for a tariff truce. Should that clarity arrive, global supply chains will begin rerouting through countries with reciprocal US trade agreements. Until then, the risk of a recession will climb.Business investment, particularly in the second half of 2025, will be critical. For now, companies are delaying decisions—on inventory, on capital expenditures, and on supply chain commitments. The reasons are pragmatic. Tariffs are at their highest levels since the early 20t