国际清算银行-2025年度经济报告（英）

BISAnnual EconomicJune 2022ReportAnnual EconomicReportJune 2025BISAnnual EconomicJune 2022Report© Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Limited extracts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. www.bis.orgemail@bis.orgFollow usAnnual EconomicReportJune 2025BISThis publication is available on the BIS website (https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2025e.htm).© Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated.ISSN 2616-9428 (print) ISSN 2616-9436 (online)ISBN 978-92-9259-859-4 (print) ISBN 978-92-9259-858-7 (online)BIS Annual Economic Report 2025ContentsAt a crossroads: policy challenges in a shifting world . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1The year under review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Pursuing stability and growth in a shifting world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Monetary policy priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Building a monetary and financial system for the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4I. Sustaining stability amid uncertainty and fragmentation . . . . . . . 7Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7From soft landing to turbulence and uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Box A: Trade deficits and tariffs: why tariffs fall short . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Vulnerabilities on the path ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Box B: Trade restrictions hinder FDI and reduce economic growth in EMEs . . . . . . . . . . 20Box C: Will the inflation surge leave a mark on household inflation expectations? . . . 22Policies to deal with a more uncertain and fragmented world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Additional notes to graphs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41II. Financial conditions in a changing global financial system . . . . 47Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47Structural changes in the global financial system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48The FX swap market as linchpin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .