银行业中报业绩前瞻：银行业绩有望回稳

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 银行 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 银行 报告日期：行业专题 http://www.stocke.com.cn 2/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 表1： 25H1上市行业绩预测 资料来源：wind，浙商证券研究所。25H1、25E为预测值。 核心因素 23A 24Q1 24H1 24Q1-3 24A 25Q1 25H1 25E 净利润 归母净利润增速 1.4% -0.6% 0.4% 1.4% 2.3% -1.2% -0.5% 1.3% 营业收入 营收增速 -0.8% -1.7% -2.0% -1.0% 0.1% -1.7% -0.9% -0.7% 利息净收入 利息净收入增速 -2.8% -3.0% -3.4% -3.2% -2.1% -1.7% -1.1% -1.1% 规模增速 11.3% 9.6% 7.2% 8.2% 7.5% 7.5% 7.1% 6.8% × 单季净息差 1.47% 1.45% 1.42% 1.41% 1.38% 1.33% 1.31% 1.29% 非息收入 中收增速 -8.0% -10.3% -12.0% -10.8% -9.4% -0.7% 0.4% 1.5% 其他非息增速 29.0% 19.4% 20.3% 25.6% 25.8% -3.2% -1.5% -0.7% 成本支出 信用成本 0.75% 0.86% 0.82% 0.76% 0.67% 0.79% 0.78% 0.63% 成本收入比 35.5% 30.4% 31.8% 33.0% 36.3% 26.2% 31.7% 35.0% 图1： 25H1 PMI-TTM震荡回升，不良生成有望稳中向好 图2： 样本信用卡 ABS违约率仍在高位 资料来源：wind，浙商证券研究所 资料来源：wind，浙商证券研究所 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%47.0%47.5%48.0%48.5%49.0%49.5%50.0%50.5%51.0%51.5%52.0%17-0617-1218-0618-1219-0619-1220-0620-1221-0621-1222-0622-1223-0623-1224-0624-1225-06PMI-TTM真实不良生成TTM(右轴，逆序)0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%1.60%1.80%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%22-1223-0223-0423-0623-0823-1023-1224-0224-0424-0624-0924-1125-0125-0325-05信用卡按揭(右轴)行业专题 http://www.stocke.com.cn 3/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 表2： 25H1各类银行业绩预测 国有行 23A 24Q1 24H1 24Q1-3 24A 25Q1 25H1 25E 归母净利润增速 2.1% -2.0% -1.0% 0.8% 1.8% -2.1% -1.5% 0.5% 营收增速 0.0% -2.2% -2.6% -1.2% -0.3% -1.5% -1.3% -1.6% 规模增速 12.8% 11.0% 7.7% 9.0% 7.9% 7.4% 7.1% 7.3% 单季净息差 1.45% 1.44% 1.39% 1.38% 1.37% 1.29% 1.28% 1.24% 利息净收入增速 -2.5% -1.9% -3.0% -2.8% -1.6% -3.4% -2.5% -2.7% 中收增速 -2.0% -7.5% -9.9% -8.9% -7.9% -1.5% -0.4% 1.0% 其他非息增速 35.4% 5.4% 13.4% 26.8% 22.9% 12.8% 6.0% 3.0% 信用成本 0.57% 0.79% 0.70% 0.62% 0.50% 0.73% 0.66% 0.46% 股份行 23A 24Q1 24H1 24Q1-3 24A 25Q1 25H1 25E 归母净利润增速 -3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.8% -2.1% -1.3% 1.0% 营收增速 -3.7% -3.2% -2.9% -2.5% -1.3% -3.9% -2.4% -1.0% 规模增速 7.4% 5.1% 4.1% 5.1% 4.8% 5.2% 4.7% 3.9% 单季净息差 1.58% 1.51% 1.52% 1.50% 1.45% 1.43% 1.42% 1.41% 利息净收入增速 -4.6% -6.6% -5.6% -5.2% -4.9% -0.5% -1.2% -0.3% 中收增速 -15.1% -16.4% -17.1% -14.4% -12.3% -0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 其他非息增速 21.2% 29.6% 26.0% 25.0% 29.3% -17.8% -8.9% -4.8% 信用成本 1.19% 1.03% 1.14% 1.11% 1.09% 0.92% 1.10% 1.04% 城商行 23A 24Q1 24H1 24Q1-3 24A 25Q1 25H1 25E 归母净利润增速 7.6% 7.0% 6.2% 6.7% 7.3% 5.5% 6.2% 7.3% 营收增速 2.5% 5.6% 4.6% 3.9% 6.4% 3.0% 5.8% 6.2% 规模增速 11.7% 11.7% 11.4% 11.6% 12.1% 14.1% 13.1% 10.7% 单季净息差 1.37% 1.39% 1.34% 1.34% 1.34% 1.34% 1.32% 1.30% 利息净收入增速 0.5% -0.7% -0.2% 0.4% 2.6% 8.4% 10.0% 9.2% 中收增速 -25.2% -12.0% -7.4% -10.7% -9.6% 10.3% 11.3% 10.6% 其他非息增速 27.7% 37.2% 25.3% 21.5% 24.9% -13.8% -6.9% -3.6% 信用成本 0.96% 0.97% 0.89% 0.93% 0.96% 0.95% 0.88% 0.82% 农商行 23A 24Q1 24H1 24Q1-3 24A 25Q1 25H1 25E 归母净利润增速 10.0% 1.2% 6.2% 4.9% 5.7% 4.8% 5.1% 5.4% 营收增速 1.3% 4.7% 3.4% 2.1% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 规模增速 9.4% 7.2% 7.0% 6.6% 6.8% 7.5% 6.8% 5.9% 单季净息差 1.56% 1.56% 1.53% 1.51% 1.49% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 利息净收入增速 -2.7% -4.5% -4.4% -4.1% -2.8% -0.9% -0.9% -1.5% 中收增速 -1.5% -8.2% -4.3% -4.6% -1.2% 4.7% 7.