世界银行-佛得角公共财政审查：面对冲击加强财政可持续性（英）

ENHANCING FISCALSUSTAINABILITY IN THEFACE OF SHOCKSCABO VERDEPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedTable of ContentsAbbreviations and Acronyms VAcknowledgements VIIExecutive Summary VIII01.Understanding TheMacro-Fiscal Context 191.1. Recent Macro-Fiscal Developments 211.2. Macro-Fiscal Challenges And Risks 251.3. Fiscal Policy: Past And Present 351.4. Policy Recommendations 4602.Improving Domestic RevenueMobilization In Cabo Verde 502.1. Revenue Trends, Potential And Effort 522.2. The Efficiency Of Cabo Verde’s Tax System 562.3. Is There Scope To Simplify The Tax System? 682.4. Is Cabo Verde’s Tax Regime Effective At Correcting For Externalities? 832.5. Policy Recommendations 9303.Recalibrating TowardsGrowth-Enhancing Expenditure 983.1. Expenditure Trends And Budget Rigidity 1003.2. Efforts Towards Growth-Enhancing Public Spending 1173.3. Policy Recommendations 13404.Accelerating The SOE ReformAgenda To Reduce Fiscal Risks 1384.1. The SOE Landscape In Cabo Verde 1404.2. Corporate Governance And Accountability Mechanisms 1474.3. State Footprint And Effects On Markets 1524.4. Assessment Of Fiscal Costs And Risks From The SOE Sector 1554.5. Policy Recommendations 177AnnexesList of FiguresEconomic growth decelerated after the global financial crisis......and has been more volatile than in most peer countries (2000−2022)Recovery has been mostly driven by service exports and private consumptionDeficits in the current account and fiscal balance have narrowedCabo Verde trails peers on some economic, climate and social development indicatorsAlthough improving, gender gaps in labor force participation persistOne-off revenues, the wage bill freeze, and low capital spending reduced the fiscal deficitCabo Verde has limited fiscal space......and public debt remains elevatedPublic debt is concessional with favorable conditions…...though debt servicing pressures are considerable for the medium-termGrowth remains key for public debt reductionFiscal risks from SOEs have been increasingCabo Verde is highly vulnerable to climate changeCapital expenditures have borne the brunt of the expenditure adjustment in the last decade…...and are significantly lower than for peersGovernment capital expenditure has negatively contributed to growthIncome tax productivity is lower than in peer countriesCabo Verde’s most recent fiscal consolidation occurred from 2014−2017Fiscal policy has generally been procyclical in the last decadeExpenditure has generally accompanied the cycleExpenditure procyclicality has been among the highest of peers (2000−2023)......and was even stronger until the pandemic (2000−2019)Total tax revenues are increasing, but are yet to match levels of aspirational peersThe share of tax revenues in total revenues is comparable with regional and aspirational peersTax collection levels are stagnantDespite Cabo Verde’s tax collection levels, there is sco