2025年地方政府和城投平合债务对上市银行的影响测算报告

摘要近年来，防范化解地方政府债务风险受到中央的高度重视。本报告先是详细剖析中国上市银行的地方政府和城投平台债务敞口（包括地方政府债券、城投贷款、城投债和城投非标）；然后，梳理归纳 1990 年代中后期日本银行和地方财政危机的特点和启示；接着，分别模拟息差减少、息差减少+房地产价格下降、息差减少+房地产价格下降+地方政府和城投平台债务扩大三种场景下，中国地方政府和城投平台债务对上市银行净利润和资本充足率的影响。主要结论如下：第一，中国上市银行地方政府和城投平台债务敞口超过 80 万亿元，占中国地方政府和城投平台债务的近七成。上市银行的城投非标敞口被不断压降，但其地方政府债券、城投债、城投贷款仍保持较快增长。上市银行的城投贷款年平均增速最快，达到 16.6%，主要是上市国有银行大量投放城投贷款。第二，不同场景下，地方政府和城投平台债务对上市银行的净利润和资本充足率的影响基本在可控范围内。三种场景下，地方政府和城投平台债务将使得上市银行净利润至多下降 61%，资本充足率至多减少 4.4 个百分点。上市银行不会因为地方政府和城投平台债务问题导致亏损或者资本充足率低于 8%，但报告的测算结果建立在地方政府和城投平台债务本金不会成为银行坏账的基础上。第三，地方政府和城投平台债务规模扩大对上市银行的净利润影响最大。仅是息差减少+房地产价格下降的场景，上市银行净利润至多减少约两成。但当息差减少+房地产价格下降+地方政府和城投平台债务扩大同时发生时，上市银行净利润至多减少约六成。第四，不同类型的银行中，上市国有银行受到地方政府和城投平台债务的影响最大，主要是上市国有银行持有最多的地方政府和城投平台债务资产。由于中国的化债方式主要是延缓债务，上市国有银行的金融资源越来越多被用于借新还旧，这在一定程度上挤出了投资，拖累经济增长，扭曲资金配置效率。综上，建议政府：优化地方政府和城投平台债务控制的定量指标体系、控制城投贷款总量、避免城投平台大规模破产重组、继续增加对银行资本金的补充。__________________________________________________________北大汇丰智库经济组（撰稿人：邹欣）成稿时间：2025 年 1 月 23 日| 总第 125 期 | 2023-2024 学年第 25 期联系人：程云（0755-26032270，chengyun@phbs.pku.edu.cn）Measuring the impact of local governmentand LGFV debt on listed banks in ChinaAbstract: In recent years, preventing and resolving local government debt risks hasreceived great attention from the central government. This report firstly analyzes thelocal government and LGFV(Local government financing vehicle) debt exposure ofChinese listed banks; then, it summarizes the main insights of the Japanese bankingcrisis and local government fiscal crisis in the mid-to-late 1990s; next, it simulates theimpacts of local government and LGFV debt on net profit and capital adequacy of listedbanks in China under the following scenarios: debt resolution, debt resolution coupledwith a decline in real estate prices, and debt resolution combined with a decline in realestate prices and an expansion of local government and LGFV debt.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly, the exposure of listed banks in China to local government and LGFV debtexceeds 80 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of total local government andLGFV debt. Although the exposure of listed banks to non-standard debt of LGFV hasbeen continuously reduced, local government bonds, LGFV bonds, and LGFV loansheld by listed banks have still experienced rapid growth. The annual average growthrate of LGFV loans by listed banks is the highest at 16.6%, primarily because that listedstate-owned banks has loaned a lot to LGFV.Secondly, the impact of local government and LGFV debt on the net profit and capitaladequacy ratios of listed banks is generally within a manageable range. Under the threescenarios, local government and LGFV debt will reduce listed banks' net profit by up to61% and capital adequacy ratio by up to 4.4 percentage points. Listed banks are notexpected to incur losses or have capital adequacy ratios fall below 8% due to localgovernment and LGFV debt, but the report's estimation is built on the assumption thatthe principal of local government and LGFV debt will not be banks’ bad debt.Thirdl