英文【巴克莱】蒂姆关于服务器的三件事；模型更新

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 8.IT Hardware and Communications EquipmentTim's Three Things on Servers;Model UpdateWe update our detailed Server model following recent resultsand industry conversations. As part of our Three Thingsseries, we discuss: (1) AI's growing impact, (2) that theEnterprise recovery is bumpy but happening, and (3) peakedbranded AI server share gains, for now.We appreciate your 5-star vote in the 2025 Extel All-America Research Survey in the ITHardware & Electronics, Manufacturing Services, and Telecom & Networking Equipmentcategories. View our analysts » Vote 5 Stars for Barclays »We want to address three key items that we believe investors may not fully appreciate about theServer market: 1) AI continues to change the industry dynamics in a meaningful way, 2)Traditional Enterprise recovery cycle remains in motion despite uncertain macro, and 3)Branded AI server share gains likely peaked for now with White Box (inclusive of NVDA)continuing to gain share. Following recent results and industry conversations, we adjust our AI and Traditional serverestimates for CY25/26. We slightly took down our CY25-26 AI server estimates, largely due topreviously updated NVDA (covered by Tom O'Malley, Barclays US Semiconductor analyst) andSMCI estimates. We also maintained our CY25-26 Traditional server revenue growth estimates, given our analysis and commentary from HPE/DELL this earnings cycle. We continue to expectEnterprise could drive further upside in the year, though macro uncertainty could weigh onnear-term upside. As a reminder, our server model includes AI vs Traditional server splits where we break outrevenues, units, and ASPs in more detail for both portions of the market. Our model also adjustsup for GPUs on consignment within our white box server units and revenue, given we believemany of the GPUs purchased by hyperscalers are on consignment.1. AI DynamicsWe already know AI has been a big positive for the server industry, with focus on companies'growing AI server share and backlog. The AI server market has grown to more than twice the sizeof the Traditional server market on a revenue basis.Equity Research10 June 2025IT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentNEUTRALIT Hardware and CommunicationsEquipmentTim Long+1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.comBCI, USAlyssa Shreves+1 212 526 7570alyssa.shreves@barclays.comBCI, USGeorge Wang+1 212 526 2971george.wang@barclays.comBCI, USEmma Cho+1 212 526 8922emma.cho@barclays.comBCI, USCompleted: 09-Jun-25, 19:28 GMT Released: 10-Jun-25, 04:10 GMTRestricted - ExternalFIGURE 1. Total AI Server Revenu