世界银行-气候变化影响和适应方案的宏观经济影响：一种建模方法（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11133The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation OptionsA Modeling ApproachKodzovi AbaloBrent BoehlertThanh BuiAndrew BurnsDiego CastilloUnnada ChewpreechaAlexander HaiderStephane HallegatteCharl JoosteFlorent McIsaacHeather RuberlKim SmetKen StrzepekEconomic Policy Global Department & Climate Change GroupMay 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11133Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank’s macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Coun-try Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact chan-nels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeco-nomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic prod-uct in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportuni-ties identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.This paper is a product of the Economic Policy Global Department and the Climate Change Group.. It is part of a larger effo