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Capital CurrentsEuropean Banking M&A is Back© Oliver Wyman2Ronan O'KellyAlexandre LearyCapital Currents is a cross-industry series focused on distilling the key trends in M&A and identifying how management teams can capture value. Trends in focus© Oliver Wyman3European banking M&A is back.Deal volumes have rebounded from historical lows, doubling since 2020 to $36 billion in 2024, driven by the sector’s restored profitability, improved capital positions, and strategic urgency for scale and diversification. While market volatility triggered by US tariff action has threatened global M&A recovery — with deals delayed, and in some cases, cancelled — it does not seem to have dulled dealmaking in banking.A record $27 billion of European banking deals have been announced since the start of 2025, almost double the volume for the same period in 2024, putting European banking M&A on track for a record year.© Oliver Wyman4Capital Currents: European Banking M&A is BackExhibit 1: European Banking M&A in EuropeSource: Mergermarket – Announced and completed, FIG deals greater than $1M in deal value included, Oliver Wyman AnalysisThe underlying industrial logic for consolidation in European banking is more compelling than it has been for a decade. In this piece, we explore the primary drivers behind this resurgence in M&A activity and outline best practices for management teams to capture value in banking M&A.CATALYSTS FOR ACTIONEuropean bank management teams have the motivation and now the means, to engage in strategic M&A. Building scale and capability remain key catalysts for action. Thirteen years after the introduction of the European Banking Union, the region, including the UK, remains significantly more fragmented than the US. The top 5 EU and UK banks hold just 24% of banking assets, compared to 57% for the US. Given material fixed costs of technology and regulatory compliance, scale matters. Indeed, there is a strong relationship between size and efficiency across European banks. Our analysis of a sample of the largest banking M&A transactions over the past decade shows that on average for each $100 billion in assets acquired, buyers can expect over $2 billion in cost reduction.© Oliver Wyman5Capital Currents: European Banking M&A is BackBanks are also increasingly looking to use M&A to acquire capability, such as wealth and asset management, and payments, as well as to improve the quality of earnings and returns. European banks remain overly exposed to interest income, which was an existential challenge to earnings during the eight years of negative rates across the Eurozone. With economists forecasting 80 basis points of rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) by the end of the year, earnings are once again at risk. As a result, banks are looking to shift their earnings mix in favor of stable, recurring fee income, and M&A is an accelerated route to achieve this goal.Capacity and an appetite to engage in M&A from top European banks are also fu