IMF-旅游业对小发展中国家增长的长期和短期影响（英）

Long and Short-term Impact of Tourism on Growth in Small Developing States Daniel Carvalho Cunha, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Pedro Jucá Maciel WP/25/103 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 MAY * The authors would like to thank Bruno Albuquerque, Can Sever, Hany Abdel-Latif, Justin Tyson, and Roland Kpodar for usefulcomments and discussions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, itsExecutive Board, or its management. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/103IMF Working Paper African Department Long and Short-term Impact of Tourism on Growth in Small Developing States Prepared by Daniel Carvalho Cunha, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Pedro Jucá Maciel* Authorized for distribution by Justin Tyson and Martin Schindler May 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: We explore the relationship of recessions and tourism cycles on the economic performance of tourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS). Using local projections regressions, we examine how these cycles affect potential output growth and its drivers—investment and employment—and estimate the short-run elasticity of tourism growth to economic activity. Our findings reveal that the long-term influence of recessions are less persistent in SDS than in larger emerging markets, as tourist-dependent economies experience faster recoveries from recessions. Moreover, we use Cabo Verde as a natural experiment to assess the short-term relation of tourism on growth and found that tourism's short-run elasticity to growth is around 0.4 over 12 months, with limited spillovers to non-tourism areas. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Cunha,Daniel, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Pedro Maciel (2025). “Long and Short-term Impact of Tourism on Growth in Small Developing States”. IMF Working Paper No. 25/103 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund). JEL Classification Numbers: H63, E43, R50 Keywords: Small Developing States; Tourism; Growth Author’s E-Mail Address: dcunha@imf.org, rgarciaverdu@imf.org, pmaciel@imf.org Long and Short-term Impact of Tourism on Growth in SmallDeveloping StatesDaniel Carvalho Cunha, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Pedro Juc´a Maciel†May 16, 2025AbstractWe explore the relationship of recessions and tourism cycles on the economic performanceof tourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS). Using local projections regressions, weexamine how these cycles affect potential output growth and its drivers—investment and em-ployment—and estimate the short-