IMF-国际货币基金组织支持的计划中的宏观金融政策和脆弱性（英）

Macro-Financial Policies and Vulnerabilities in IMF-Supported Programs Yazan Al-Karablieh, José Marzluf, Hector Perez-Saiz, Azzam Santosa, and Fabián Valencia WP/25/97 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 MAY © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/97IMF Working Paper Strategy, Policy, and Review Department Macro-Financial Policies and Vulnerabilities in IMF-Supported Programs Prepared by Yazan Al-Karablieh, José Marzluf, Hector Perez-Saiz, Azzam Santosa, and Fabián Valencia* Authorized for distribution by Martin Čihák May 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: We construct a unique dataset by collecting macro-financial commitments data using textual analysis of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFPs), a document outlining, inter-alia, policy commitments by member countries, in the context of an IMF-supported program. We combine this data with information on structural conditionality. Using a staggered difference-in-differences methodology, we show that IMF-supported programs with macro-financial policy commitments are followed by periods of lower non-performing loans and in some cases lower credit-to-GDP ratios, relative to IMF-supported programs without macro-financial commitments, mostly for the post global financial crisis (GFC) period before the COVID-19 pandemic. The NPL-to-loans ratio does not seem to decrease as a result of credit expansion. The results point to stronger and more abrupt declines in credit-to-GDP following ex-post macro-financial policies, those implemented after a crisis occurs (e.g., restructuring), and milder and more gradual declines following ex-ante policies, those implemented before risks materialize (e.g., regulatory requirements). The responses are also larger when countries have positive credit gaps at the start of the program than when credit gaps are negative. These results point to the importance of considering the country’s position in the credit cycle in program design and in addressing vulnerabilities preemptively to reduce the need for abrupt corrections when risks materialize. Finally, macro-financial policies targeting financial inclusion tend to increase credit-to-GDP ratios in low credit-to-GDP program countries. JEL Classification Numbers: G01, G20, G21, G23, G28, O16 Keywords: Textual analysis; non-performing loans; credit growth; IMF-supported programs; macro-financial policies Author’s E-Mail Address: YAl-Karablieh@imf.org, JMarzluf@imf.org, HPerez-Saiz@imf.org