英文【高盛】全球利率交易员期限烫手山芋

Global long-ends were under pressure this week, with ongoing rises in Japanese 30y yields, focus on US fiscal issues, and high UK inflation. Re-emergence of trade and tariff risks toward the end of the week offered only a limited reprieve. While weakness in 20-40y JGBs remains relatively localized and thus likely reflects technical factors, it also reduces the urgency for policy shifts. Against a backdrop of higher global inflation and elevated deficits, we think the risk of spillovers from long-end JGB sell-off is unlikely to subside quickly. In the US, we think the parallels to 2023 will limit the scope for relief at the long-end of the Treasury curve, instead preferring skewing any longs toward shorter maturities. Unlike in 2023 however, deficit expectations are more sustainable, suggesting that the key signals for the market will be on the demand side. The upside inflation surprise in Canada still needs to be balanced with soft underlying activity; receive July BoC meeting OIS. In Europe, we think that the front-end steepness is justified by the combination of near-term downside risks and future fiscal expansion. Rather than receiving terminal rates, we think 5y inflation longs offer macro value. The bear-steepening response of the UK curve to an upside inflation surprise indicates the UK long-end is not yet out of the woods, but we think the global weakness in duration exacerbated the move. We continue to recommend long 10y10y Gilts vs UST. United States and Canada Feedback to the future. Last Friday’s Moody’s downgrade, the progress of the nfiscal package through Congress, and global spillovers combined to reinforce the simmering focus on fiscal risks. The parallels to the 2023 experience include the diminishing conviction in policy rate cuts, an undercurrent of fiscal focus (sharpened by a US ratings downgrade), and bearish impulses from Japan. However, we think risks for Treasuries this time around stems more from the lack of appetite to stabilize the broader fiscal trajectory amid waning global demand for US assets, rather than a sudden emergence in concern around the size of the deficit or issuance composition, which played a clearer role in 2023 (Exhibit 1). While the fiscal bill appears unlikely to meaningfully alter the deficit path versus our prior baseline, it nonetheless looks set to keep the debt burden heading steadily higher amid a global accumulation of free float. Thursday’s Supreme Court comments on the ‘unique structure’ of the Fed in its ruling to George Cole +44(20)7552-1214 | george.cole@gs.com Goldman Sachs International William Marshall +1(212)357-0413 | william.c.marshall@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Bill Zu +1(212)357-8230 | bill.zu@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Simon Freycenet +44(20)7774-5017 | simon.freycenet@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Friedrich Schaper +44(20)7774-7906 | friedrich.schaper@gs.com Goldman Sachs InternationalGlobal Rates Trader Duration Hot Potato23 May 2025 | 7:31PM BST This report is intended for distribu