联合国贸易发展委员会年贸易和发展展望：压力之下——不确定性重塑全球经济前景（英）

U NI T E D NAT I O NS CO NFE R E N C E ON T R A D E A N D D E VE L OP M E N TU NI T E D NAT I O NS CO NFE R E N C E ON T R A D E A N D D E VE L OP M E N TTrade and development foresights 2025Under pressure: Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsTrade and development foresights 2025Under pressure: Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsii Trade and development foresights 2025Under pressure: Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsThe analysis presented in this report is consistent with information and data available as at 10 April 2025.Inquiries about the content of this publication should be sent by email to the Macroeconomic and Development Policies Branch, Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD); e-mail: unctad-gds_mdpb@unctad.org. The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of any firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.This document has not been formally edited.UNCTAD/GDS/INF/2025/1 iiTrade and development foresights 2025Under pressure: Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsiii About UNCTADUNCTAD is the leading institution within the United Nations that deals with trade and development. It is part of the United Nations Secretariat and has a membership of 195 countries, one of the largest in the United Nations system.UNCTAD supports developing countries to access the benefits of a globalized economy more fairly and effectively by providing economic and trade analysis, facilitating consensus-building and offering technical assistance to help developing countries use trade, investment, finance and technology for inclusive and sustainable development.Trade and development foresights 2025Under pressure: Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospectsContentsExplanatory notes ................................................................................vKey takeaways ....................................................................................viA. Global economic context: Uncertainty drives lower growth expectations ...............................11. The spectre of low growth ..........................................12. Uncertainty and financial turbulence ..........................43. Global macroeconomic outlook ...............................11B. International markets .................................................191. Dynamism of merchandise trade fades away ...............................................................192. Capital flows to developing countries: Compound risks .......................................................233. Commodity markets not immune to global uncertainty