IMF-从量化综合政策框架看外汇干预：以阿尔巴尼亚为例（英）

Foreign Exchange Intervention Through the Lens of the Quantitative Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of Albania David Bartolini, Jakree Koosakul, Rebecca Huang, Jesper Linde and Roland Meeks SIP/2025/038IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 17, 2024. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No. 25/21. 2025 APR © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/038 IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department Foreign Exchange Intervention Through the Lens of the Quantitative Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of Albania Prepared by David Bartolini, Jakree Koosakul, Rebecca Huang, Jesper Linde and Roland Meeks Authorized for distribution by Anke Weber April 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 17, 2024. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/21. ABSTRACT: In recent years, Albania has experienced a sustained appreciation of the domestic currency. This raises the questions of what factors are driving this appreciation and how to calibrate appropriate policy responses. Drawing on insights provided by the IMF’s integrated policy framework (IPF), this paper examines the case for foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in Albania by estimating an IPF model to quantitatively illustrate relevant policy tradeoffs. While the estimation results confirm the shallow nature of the local FX markets, the appreciation of the lek is found to have been primarily driven by fundamental factors, making conventional interest rate policy an appropriate policy tool. Nevertheless, in certain circumstances where the fundamental lek appreciation is likely to be compounded by non-fundamental shocks, including shifts in foreign investor risk appetite, FXI can serve as an effective complementary tool in alleviating output-inflation tradeoffs. RECOMMENDED CITATION: David Bartolini, Jakree Koosakul, Rebecca Huang, Jesper Linde and Roland Meeks. 2025. “Foreign Exchange Intervention Through the Lens of the Quantitative Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of Albania” IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/038). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. JEL Classification Numbers: E52, E58, E61, F31, G15 Keywords: Albania, integrated policy framework, exchange rates, capital flows, tourism, foreign exchange markets, market liquidity, foreign exchange intervention, monetary policy Author’s E-Mail Addresses: DBartolini@imf.org, JKoosakul@imf.org, RHuang@imf.org, JLinde@imf.org, RMeeks@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Foreign Exchange Intervention Through the Lens of the Quantitative Integrated Policy Framework: The Case of Albania Albania Prepared by David Bartolini, Jakree Koosakul, Rebe