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STRATEGIES FOR TURBULENT TIMESHow national oil companies can navigate growing trade tensions and challenging oil and gas marketsNadim HaddadPedro AlcalaSandro MelisJad MoussalliLarissa De Lima© Oliver Wyman2Strategies For Turbulent TimesINTRODUCTIONThe global oil and gas industry is currently navigating a turbulent landscape, significantly impacted by new tariffs and the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. This geopolitical uncertainty is contributing to falling oil prices, which are hovering around $60 per barrel. While tariffs have acted as a key catalyst for this decline, the situation is further amplified by a combination of demand-side and supply-side pressures.On the supply side, OPEC+ countries have accelerated plans to roll back output cuts, increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May. Non-OPEC+ supply has also been growing, adding to global supply concerns.While the oil and gas commodity market has reacted to this short-term instability, these developments also carry potential long-term consequences. Local crude inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S, reaching peak levels not seen since mid-2023. Major analysts have revised their outlook, downgrading crude projections to $60-$62 per barrel.These and other indicators suggest uncertainty will continue.What scenarios are emerging concurrent to tariff developments? What impact might these scenarios have on the outlook for the oil and gas market? What strategic shifts should national oil companies (NOCs) adopt to mitigate risks and adapt to a changing environment?© Oliver Wyman3Strategies For Turbulent TimesIn an era of geopolitical uncertainty, national oil companies must adopt adaptable strategies to navigate the complexities of fluctuating tariffs and volatile markets© Oliver Wyman4Strategies For Turbulent TimesEMERGING SCENARIOSThe landscape for NOCs is being reshaped, as trade policies will largely determine the long-term impact of tariff tensions on the oil and gas market.At least four plausible paths lie ahead for the next six to twelve months, depending on the level of tariffs and how quickly a resolution is reached. Each scenario represents a distinct combination of economic disruption severity and structural market realignment. The more prolonged the uncertainty and the higher the tariff levels, the greater the potential for both immediate economic pain and permanent reshaping of global trade patterns that will affect NOCs’ operating environments for years to come.Exhibit 1: Emerging scenariosHigher TariffsQuick ResolutionProlonged UncertaintyLower Tariffs1 “Let’s Make a Deal”Political recalibration eases tariffs and trade frictions3Extended FrictionNegotiations drag on, with pauses in tariffs providing relief, but uncertainty remains2 Strategic DecouplingWorld splits into regionally aligned trade blocs, providing clarity but a more fragmented global economy Full-Blown Trade WarNegotiations repeatedly collapse amid rising tensions