新经济思想研究所-2020年代的欧洲天然气：极端、矛盾和持续不确定性的十年（英）

1 European Natural Gas through the 2020s: the Decade of Extremes, Contradictions and Continuing Uncertainties Yaroslav Melekh, James Dixon, Katrina Salmon and Michael Grubb * Working Paper No. 233 May 13th, 2025 ABSTRACT The European gas system has entered a structurally volatile phase defined by post energy crisis overbuild, dislocated demand trajectories, and a decoupling mandate under REPowerEU. This paper interrogates the contradictions between fossil lock-in through LNG import capacity and overcontracting, and policy-driven demand reduction. The EU’s pivot to flexible LNG procurement exposes pricing to global volatility, while decarbonisation hinges on electrification, demand-side retrofits and hydrogen feasibility—each encumbered by cost, infrastructure lag, and political friction. We assess Europe’s gas outlook through the decade’s * Dr Yaroslav Melekh, Research Fellow; Katrina Salmon, Research Assistant; James Dixon, Research Assistant; and Professor Michael Grubb, UCL Institute of Sustainable Resources, University College London. The authors are grateful for insightful comments on drafts, to Jonathan Stern, Distinguished Research Fellow and Founder of the Gas Research Programme at Oxford Institute of Energy Studies and Prof Leigh Hancher, Professor of European law at the University of Tilburg and Florence School of Regulation. Financial support from the Institute of New Economic Thinking is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed remain entirely those of the named authors. 2 residual volatility, policy ambivalence, and the emerging global LNG oversupply regime — a clash with geopolitical energy security imperatives, domestic backlashes against capital-intensive green technologies and market inertia. We argue that Europe’s energy system now operates in a zone of structural ambiguity—where security, sovereignty, economy and climate ambition remain deeply entangled, but as yet far from operationally aligned. https://doi.org/10.36687/inetwp233 JEL Codes: D40; D47; F15; F21; F50; F51; G13; H12; L60; L95; O25; O38; O52; Q34; Q35; Q41; Q47; Q48; Q54 Keywords: Natural gas trade; LNG; European energy scenarios; European energy security; RePowerEU 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................. 9 Getting back on track: three courses of action to achieve RePower’s targets ............... 11 Gas prices: resilience will require maintaining decarbonisation through a likely trough of softer (but still uncertain) mid-term gas prices over the next few years ....................... 12 The electricity nexus ................................................................................................. 13 Meeting the EU’s gas demand will necessitate strategic risk-taking ............................ 13 Policy implications ................................................................................................... 14 Introduction ...