英文【巴克莱】未来两年电气设备将遭遇供应海啸

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 3.Capital Goods - Chart of the Week #70Supply tsunami hitting electricalequipment in next two yearsBiggest MV/HV capacity additions on record from now to2027, supported by compelling <3yr paybacks. We track >60projects with estimated total revenue capacity in excess ofUS$30bn. What's next: lead times normalise, utilisation drops& peak margins fall, led by MV; reit UW SIE, ABBThe biggest question across global industrials: are electricals at peak margins? Demandand margins for electricals are at record levels. On margins specifically, these are higher thanthose for Machinery companies for the first time in at least two decades, despite Machinerybusinesses benefiting from large, lucrative after-market revenue streams. We track the biggestever wave of mid- & high-voltage electrical equipment capacity hitting the market in the next24m (with current economic paybacks being as low as <3 years, we would expect thefragmented supply side to continue adding capacity until margins/returns normalise). Leadtimes have started to fall and pricing to flat-line even before that. We see a high probability ofelectricals' earnings growth stalling, or even declining, as this classic capex-driven cycle comesto an end. We see greatest risk in MV segments and particularly at ABB and SIE, with the formerseeing the fastest margin expansion among all Western electricals in the last five years (for fulldetails see our sector report here).Biggest MV/HV capacity additions on record are coming. Our proprietary global project-by-project database counts c60 capacity expansion projects (unlikely to be all that exist) in theMV/HV space from 32 listed/non-listed electrical suppliers, with estimated total revenuecapacity in excess of US$30bn, about half of which is in North America. 25% of this incrementalcapacity should be available by YE25, followed by big step-ups in 2026 and 2027. The cumulativecapacity increase implemented by listed companies could be closer to 20% of their existingrevenue capacity. Confirming the trend above, we highlight (i) the cumulative capex of majorelectrical suppliers growing c65% vs. pre-Covid level, and (ii) 'new capacity' and 'capacityexpansion' appearing in Electricals' transcripts 4-5 times more often than historically.Equity Research25 May 2025European Capital GoodsNEUTRALEuropean Capital GoodsGeorge Featherstone, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 8585george.feather