麦肯锡-时尚产业面临着一个不断变化的世界（英）

Retail PracticeThe fashion industry faces a world in fluxBrands are grappling with rising unpredictability and slowing growth. What next?April 2025Global trade turmoil, supply chain uncertainty, consumer jitters: 2025 is shaping up to be a challenging year for the fashion industry—and many brands are worried. But in the words of McKinsey Senior Partner Gemma D’Auria, “Yes, there are risks, but there are also opportunities to be captured.” On this episode of The McKinsey Podcast, D’Auria speaks with Global Editorial Director Lucia Rahilly about our latest State of Fashion research, including who’s likely to shop where, how consumers prefer to buy, and what leaders can do to ignite progress—even in a volatile market.The McKinsey Podcast is cohosted by Lucia Rahilly and Roberta Fusaro.The following transcript has been edited for clarity and length.What’s the state of fashion?Lucia Rahilly: All of us are confronting a world in flux, given geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility plus AI potentially disrupting the way we work and shop. How do these dynamics combine to affect fashion’s overall outlook for 2025?Gemma D’Auria: It’s going to be a very challenging year. We focused on three broad regions: Europe, the US, and China. In Europe, we expect fairly sluggish growth, and consumer confidence is quite low. In China, it is extremely low.For certain parts of the world, there is an appetite to spend, particularly on goods, and we have seen a real shift by consumers toward value. What we mean by value is not just price but also perceived value for what they’re paying. This is already having an impact. For example, in the US, one of three consumers we surveyed has purchased a dupe in the last 12 months.Lucia Rahilly: Talk to us about what a dupe is—the dupe phenomenon.Gemma D’Auria: A dupe is an extremely well-made look-alike of a luxury product. And when I say “extremely well made,” I really mean that. In the past, consumers wore dupes almost with shame. Now they’re wearing them with pride. They’ve become more like the smart choice, not the cheap choice.And dupes are just one small phenomenon. Another is the growth in resale platforms. People are much more willing to purchase preloved goods than they’ve ever been. The narrative on preloved can be quite compelling, as is finding products that are no longer on the shelves or in a boutique. It’s particularly strong in luxury because of overexposure to luxury goods. People now are looking for uniqueness and for things that money alone can’t buy.Lucia Rahilly: There’s also a certain durability, presumably, in luxury goods.Gemma D’Auria: Yes, although in some categories more than others. We see this durability The fashion industry faces a world in flux2phenomenon and the perception of value maintained, or in some cases increased, over time, particularly in iconic leather goods and branded jewelry. A bit less so in apparel and footwear.Lucia Rahilly: We have an incredible cornucopia of choices now, given onlin