麦肯锡-关税与全球贸易：对商业的经济影响（英）

Geopolitics PracticeTariffs and global trade: The economic impact on businessThe recent wave of tariffs and other trade controls has created radical uncertainty for businesses. Here’s how decision-makers can best position their companies to thrive in the evolving landscape.by Cindy Levy and Shubham Singhal with Zoe FoxApril 2025Since the United States’ announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, 2025, financial markets around the world have seen heightened volatility, raising concerns about the impact on the global economy. The combined tariffs enacted by the US government since that date have rapidly raised the country’s weighted-average tariff rate to its highest level in the past 100 years, from approximately 2 percent at the start of 2025 to more than 20 percent as of April 11, 2025. Other governments’ responses have varied, from China imposing 125 percent tariffs on US imports to more than 75 countries offering to negotiate, according to the US administration.1How these measures will evolve is highly uncertain, particularly given the 90-day pause that the US government has placed on most country-specific tariffs. However, the tariffs’ impact on business cost structures, business and consumer demand, and companies’ relative competitive advantages is bound to be substantial. Business leaders are navigating a multitude of near-term decisions, with some setting up geopolitical nerve centers to coordinate their responses. In this article, we outline three actions that can help businesses make medium- to long-term decisions: analyzing relative positioning, defining strategic posture and actions, and pressure testing decisions in light of current uncertainty.Analyze relative positioningAs leaders move beyond immediate tactical responses to consider more enduring shifts to their businesses, they should assess how the new tariffs will affect their competitive advantages and growth prospects:—Relative competitive advantage. Tariffs’ impact varies widely by country and sector, and every business has a different geography and product mix, operations footprint, and supply chain. This variance makes it necessary for each organization to assess the new tariffs’ implications for its relative competitive advantage. Most business leaders are already calculating the cost impact on their operations. The next step is to analyze how the tariffs affect competitors’ cost structures and substitute products. This analysis will determine whether a business can sustain its margins—and even accelerate sales—or whether it must retrench. Since some countries have instituted new export controls and other trade restrictions in response to US tariffs, decision-makers should also assess their ability to maintain access to markets and supplies compared with competitors and whether their position might justify expanding production.—Demand. Tariff changes are likely to meaningfully affect business, consumer, and government spending, as well as trade flows. Companies should th