国会预算办公室-气候变化对21世纪GDP的影响（英）

www.cbo.gov/publication/61186 Working Paper Series Congressional Budget Office Washington, D.C. The Effects of Climate Change on GDP in the 21st Century Chad Shirley Congressional Budget Office Chad.Shirley@cbo.gov William Swanson Congressional Budget Office William.Swanson@cbo.gov Working Paper 2025-02 February 2025 To enhance the transparency of the work of the Congressional Budget Office and to encourage external review of that work, CBO’s working paper series includes papers that provide technical descriptions of official CBO analyses as well as papers that represent independent research by CBO analysts. Papers in this series are available at http://go.usa.gov/xUzd7. For valuable comments, the authors thank Elizabeth Kopits of the Environmental Protection Agency, Ishan Nath of Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, Brian Prest of Resources for the Future, Valerie Ramey of Stanford University, and James Stock of Harvard University. The authors also benefited greatly from comments by Christopher Adams, Nicholas Chase, Michael Falkenheim, Evan Herrnstadt, Joseph Kile, Jeffrey Kling, Junghoon Lee, and Hark Yoo. The authors gratefully acknowledge the editorial assistance provided by Christine Browne. Abstract This working paper provides an estimate of a probability distribution of changes in gross domestic product (GDP) in the year 2100 resulting from changes in temperature. To estimate that distribution, we perform a meta-analysis of the literature on the effects of climate change on GDP and combine those effects with forecast global temperature distributions for the year 2100. We fit Gaussian distributions to the underlying data and numerically estimate the joint distribution of GDP and temperature. Using that distribution, we project that, on average, future temperature increases will cause GDP to be 4 percent lower in 2100 than it would have been if temperatures remained unchanged after 2024. However, considerable uncertainty surrounds the long-run effects of temperature on output in the United States. There is a 5 percent chance that GDP in 2100 will be at least 21 percent lower than it would have been in the absence of additional changes in temperature. There is a similar chance that GDP will be at least 6 percent higher by 2100. Keywords: climate change, economic growth JEL Classification: O44, Q54 Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Related Literature........................................................................................................................ 2 3. Model .......................................................................................................................................... 4 3.1. Modeling Framework........................................................................................................... 4 3.2. Incorporating Fat Tails Into the Mode