美国经济分析：关税与报复关税风险(摘要)

虽然特朗普总统在就职日宣布的关税政策比预期温和，但我们仍然预计白宫将提n高对汽车和来自中国进口商品的关税税率，并认为其他关税提案也面临风险。如果白宫确实征收关税，美国的贸易伙伴可能会进行报复。本周的分析报告深入探讨了关税报复可能的形式和影响。 上次贸易战为其他国家如何报复美国关税提供了线索。中国对美国农产品、原材n料和其他出口产品实施了报复性关税。其他国家则通过对钢铁、铝、食品、车辆、船舶、家具和化学品征收报复性关税来报复美国对钢铁和铝加征的关税。 报复性关税导致美国对中国的目标产品出口大幅下降，并且在接下来的一年中，n由于平均关税税率提高15个百分点，对其他报复国家的目标产品出口下降约20%。报复性关税对同质商品（如农产品和自然资源产品）的出口打击尤其严重，至少在贸易模式发生变化之前的短期内是如此。其他经济研究发现，外国的报复导致美国出口价格和数量下降、制造业就业减少以及岗位空缺减少。 外国关税公告也导致美国股市下跌，加剧了美国关税的初步影响。在其他国家宣n布报复性关税期间，股价总共下跌了7%，而在美国宣布关税时股价已下跌5%。 美国经济的哪些部分最容易受到外国报复关税的影响？一个显而易见的猜测是，n其他国家将把目标瞄准与美国关税相同的产品（例如汽车），或与上次报复性关税相同的产品，包括食品和动物产品；木材、金属、矿物和其他原材料；船舶；家具；化工品和塑料；以及机械。我们预计大部分国家会坚持征收报复性关税，但中国还可能对那些美国难以从他国获得足量进口的关键产品实施出口管制。Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com 高盛集团 Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com 高盛集团 David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com 高盛集团 Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com 高盛集团 Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com 高盛集团 Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com 高盛集团 Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com 高盛集团美国经济分析 关税与报复关税风险 (摘要)2025年1月21日 | 9:02AM EST 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 Tariffs and the Risk of Retaliation President Trump’s Inauguration Day policy announcements on tariffs were more benign than expected. We continue to expect the White House to increase tariff rates on autos and imports from China, though we have lowered our probability of the latter to 70%. President Trump has also proposed a number of other tariff increases, which we see as risks but not the baseline. Exhibit 1 shows our revised tariff assumptions, which we discussed in detail earlier today. If the White House does increase tariff rates, US trading partners would likely retaliate. Indeed, some US trading partners have already indicated that they would retaliate against US tariffs with their own tariff increases or other measures. Exhibit 2 summarizes comments from foreign officials, press reports, and the views of our China, Europe, and Canada teams about the forms that foreign retaliation is likely to take. This week’s Analyst digs further into potential foreign retaliation and the effects on the US economy. 图表 1: We Expect US Tariff Increases on Imports from China and Autos and See Other Tariff Proposals as a Risk CountryGS OddsCoverageAmount ($bn)Current TariffAdditional TariffPossible Final TariffLegal AuthorityChina70%Lists 1-2 (no consumer goods)3425%60%85%List 3 (minimal consumer)10425%25%50%List 4a (mostly consumer)847.5%10%17.5%List 4b (mostly consumer)1160%5%5%25%All imports45014%21%35%Revoke Permanent Normal Trade Relations (requires congressional approval)Global40%Critical Imports5001.6%10%11.6%Sec. 23225%All imports31002.7%10%12.7%IEEPA, Sec. 122, or Sec. 33810%All imports31002.7%TBDTBDFair and Reciprocal Trade Act (requires congressional approval)Mexico70%Autos (electric vehicles from Chinese producers)~00-2.5%97.5100%Sec. 23220%All imports470