2025年全球电商手册：在更成熟的环境中寻找机会（英文版）-高盛

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.EQUITY RESEARCH | July 8, 2025 | 4:08 PM EDTFinding Opportunities in a More Mature Environment2025 Global eCommerce HandbookEric Sheridan +1 917 343-8683eric.sheridan@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCRonald Keung, CFA +852 2978-0856ronald.keung@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.CPang Vittayaamnuaykoon +65 6889-2470pang.vit@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Singapore) PteEric Cha +82 2 3788-1799 eric.cha@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul BranchLisa Yang +44 20 7552-3713 lisa.yang@gs.comGoldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris BranchRichard Edwards +44 20 7051-6016richard.edwards@gs.comGoldman Sachs InternationalIrma Sgarz +1 212 357-3770irma.sg comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCManish Adukia, CFA +91 22 6616-9049manish.a comGoldman Sachs India SPLRoman Reshetnev +971 4 376-3423roman.reshetnev@gs.comGoldman Sachs InternationalPierre Riopel +1 212 934-4505pierre.riopel@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCRath Raja +1 212 357-9917 rath.raja@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCWe introduce the third edition of the Goldman Sachs Global eCommerce Handbook where we analyze the key trends and debates that are impacting eCommerce around the world. We update our proprietary Goldman Sachs Global eCommerce industry model (available on request) and forecast that global eCommerce sales will grow at a +6% CAGR between 2025 and 2030. Key Takeaways 1) $4tn Global eCommerce Opportunity: +6% CAGR, Modest OnlinenPenetration Gains. We forecast +6% global eCommerce sales growth(2025-2030 CAGR) reflecting a world where online channels continue to outpaceglobal GDP and total retail sales, but with a slower pace of migration thanbefore, as eCommerce matures. We see the highest growth potential in regionswith the lowest online penetration rates (India, LatAm, ASEAN) and see the Foodand Beverage category as a significant driver of eCommerce growth.2) Macro and Tariffs Are Key Risk Factors. Our macro teams expect real GDP tonslow globally in 2025, most pronounced in the US, followed by Asia. Tariffs andthe changing global trade environment remain sources of uncertainty and keyrisk factors to our industry estimates.3) Lower Valuations Reflect New Growth Reality. Global eCommercenvaluation multiples are now well below their long-term averages (even excludingCOVID peaks) but this primarily reflects the sector’s slower growth profile, asgrowth-adjusted multiples remain at or above historical norms. We also refreshour DCF-based intrinsic